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4206:TSEAica Kogyo Company, Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-12 - not real-time

¥3,677.00

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Aica Kogyo trades at ¥3,677, sitting just above the 30‑day support of ¥3,660 and below the 20‑day SMA of ¥3,843, indicating a modest price cushion but still in a technically bearish pocket despite the overall bullish trend flag. The RSI of 40.6 suggests the stock is not yet oversold, while the MACD histogram remains strongly negative, signalling short‑term momentum weakness; however, volume is increasing and the 30‑day volatility of 23.6% is high, though the beta of 0.13 points to very low market‑wide risk.
Fundamentally, the stock appears attractively priced: a trailing P/E of 14.3 is well below the industry average of 29.9, and the price‑to‑book of 1.29 aligns with a fair valuation. The dividend yield of 3.68% with a 53% payout ratio is supported by a strong cash position (¥55.3 bn) versus debt (¥38.6 bn), and analysts project a 15% upside to a median target of ¥4,150, reinforcing the undervalued case.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above recent support
  • Bearish MACD momentum
  • Attractive dividend yield

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued P/E relative to peers
  • Projected 15% upside to target price
  • Strong cash balance and sustainable dividend

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta indicating limited market volatility exposure
  • Consistent profitability metrics (ROE ~10%)
  • Stable dividend policy with solid payout coverage

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

P/E Ratio14.3
ROE10.47%
ROA6.13%
Debt/Equity19.82
P/B Ratio1.3
Industry P/E30.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI40.6
Support¥3,660.00
Resistance¥4,008.00
MA 20¥3,843.05
MA 50¥3,686.34
MA 200¥3,643.95
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76

Valuation

Target Price¥4,233.33
Upside/Downside15.13%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.68%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.13
Volatility23.60%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.