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4114:TSENippon Shokubai Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-27 - not real-time

¥2,097.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The stock is trading above its short‑term moving average while sitting just shy of the mid‑term average, and the RSI sits in a neutral zone, suggesting no immediate overbought pressure. Bullish momentum is indicated by a positive MACD histogram despite both MACD lines being in negative territory, and the price is positioned between well‑defined support and resistance levels. Volume has been tapering, which tempers the technical optimism and hints at a cautious market stance. On the fundamentals side, the company offers a very high dividend yield, but the payout ratio exceeds earnings and free cash flow is negative, raising serious questions about sustainability. The balance sheet shows a debt‑to‑equity ratio that is markedly high, and leverage is further accentuated by modest profitability margins. Overall, the stock appears modestly undervalued on a book basis but faces pressure from earnings quality and cash generation concerns.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD histogram indicating short‑term upside
  • Price positioned above the 20‑day average
  • Attractive dividend yield despite sustainability concerns

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Modest upside to analyst target price
  • Valuation appears fair relative to book value
  • Ongoing dividend sustainability risk

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • High leverage and negative free cash flow
  • Stagnant revenue growth and thin profit margins
  • Potential regulatory headwinds for chemical producers

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-0.20%
Profit Margin4.19%
P/E Ratio18.7
ROE4.38%
ROA1.89%
Debt/Equity16.11
P/B Ratio0.8
Op. Cash Flow¥53.5B
Free Cash Flow¥-4962124800

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI52.8
Support¥1,972.50
Resistance¥2,145.50
MA 20¥2,064.10
MA 50¥2,099.08
MA 200¥2,068.90
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index88.55

Valuation

Fair Value¥3,288.42
Target Price¥2,150.00
Upside/Downside2.53%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.01%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.19
Volatility21.37%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.