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4042:TSETosoh Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time

¥2,710.50

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook shows the stock trading close to its recent support level with the short‑term moving average just below the current price and the medium‑term average slightly above, creating a neutral bias. The relative strength index sits below the midpoint, indicating the market is not overbought, while the MACD signal is bearish, adding modest downside pressure. Volatility over the past month is moderate and beta remains low, suggesting the share moves less than the broader market. Market sentiment is in the extreme greed zone, which could inflate short‑term buying interest.
Fundamental backdrop reveals a slight contraction in revenue and modest profit margins, but cash generation remains strong with healthy operating and free cash flow. The balance sheet carries a high level of debt relative to equity, raising concerns about leverage despite ample cash reserves. The dividend yield is attractive, though the payout ratio is high, putting sustainability into question. Valuation metrics point to the market price exceeding intrinsic estimates, while forward earnings expectations improve, hinting at a potential value re‑rating over a longer horizon.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • bearish MACD momentum
  • valuation above intrinsic estimate
  • high dividend payout ratio

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • improving forward earnings outlook
  • attractive dividend yield
  • stable cash flow supporting operations

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • exposure to diversified chemical markets
  • persistent leverage concerns
  • potential for valuation correction

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-1.40%
Profit Margin4.08%
P/E Ratio20.5
ROE6.31%
ROA4.36%
Debt/Equity24.91
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow¥114.6B
Free Cash Flow¥39.5B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI43.5
Support¥2,631.50
Resistance¥2,868.50
MA 20¥2,759.10
MA 50¥2,805.16
MA 200¥2,511.10
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.88

Valuation

Fair Value¥1,484.99
Target Price¥3,092.22
Upside/Downside14.08%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.69%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.55
Volatility24.92%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.