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4005:TSESumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

SAR 130.20

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

National Medical Care Company trades at SAR 130.2, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA (134.24) but below the 50‑day (145.08) and 200‑day (158.67) averages, indicating a short‑term pull‑back within a longer‑term downtrend. The RSI of 42.8 and a bearish trend direction reinforce the momentum weakness, while the MACD histogram (+0.81) and a bullish MACD signal hint at a possible near‑term reversal. The stock sits near the midpoint of its 52‑week range (support SAR 110.8, resistance SAR 162) and faces a high 30‑day volatility of 55.6%, though its beta is very low, suggesting limited correlation with broader market moves. Fundamentally, the company delivers solid earnings (PE 18.3 vs industry 25.2), 8.6% revenue growth, a 19.9% profit margin, and ROE of 18.6% with modest leverage (debt‑to‑equity 23.8%). However, the DCF‑derived fair value of SAR 47.2 is far below the current price, flagging a significant valuation gap despite a sustainable dividend yield of 1.54% and a 28% payout ratio.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical alignment (price below SMA‑50/200, RSI neutral)
  • Bullish MACD signal offering limited upside
  • High short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong earnings quality (PE below industry, healthy margins)
  • Consistent revenue growth and solid ROE
  • Attractive dividend yield with sustainable payout

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Growing Saudi healthcare demand and stable regulatory environment
  • Low leverage and strong cash generation
  • Long‑term dividend reliability and value‑oriented pricing relative to peers

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.60%
Profit Margin19.90%
P/E Ratio18.3
ROE18.64%
Debt/Equity23.80
P/B Ratio3.3
Op. Cash FlowSAR154.0M
Industry P/E25.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI42.8
SupportSAR 110.80
ResistanceSAR 162.00
MA 20SAR 134.24
MA 50SAR 145.08
MA 200SAR 158.67
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index77.21

Valuation

Fair ValueSAR 47.19
Target PriceSAR 183.10
Upside/Downside40.63%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.54%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.05
Volatility55.60%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.