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3289:TSETokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

NT$128.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The stock is trading at TWD 128, comfortably above its 20‑day (129.98), 50‑day (123.68) and 200‑day (117.17) SMAs, indicating a short‑term bullish bias, while the increasing volume trend reinforces this momentum. However, the MACD shows a bearish divergence (negative histogram) and the 30‑day volatility is elevated at ~64%, suggesting heightened price swings. Fundamentally, the company appears undervalued: its DCF fair value of TWD 145.9 is well above the market price, and the trailing P/E of 24.2 is notably lower than the industry average of 36.9, offering a value cushion. The dividend yield of 3.29% is attractive, though the payout ratio of ~80% raises sustainability questions. With a beta of 0.74, the stock is less volatile than the market, but the max drawdown of over 34% and the “Extreme Greed” sentiment (fear‑greed index 76) imply that investors should remain cautious. Overall, the combination of modest upside, solid earnings growth, and a strong dividend makes the stock a compelling mid‑to‑long‑term play, provided investors monitor cash‑flow pressures and macro‑risk factors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above all major SMAs indicating short‑term strength
  • Bearish MACD histogram suggesting possible pull‑back
  • High 30‑day volatility and recent price rally near resistance

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • DCF fair value gap (~13% upside) providing valuation cushion
  • Attractive dividend yield with current yield of 3.29%
  • Consistent revenue growth (~14%) supporting earnings outlook

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervaluation relative to peers (lower P/E than industry)
  • Strong dividend yield for income‑focused investors
  • Robust revenue growth and positioning in the semiconductor services niche

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth14.30%
Profit Margin8.54%
P/E Ratio24.2
ROE10.87%
ROA2.73%
Debt/Equity110.24
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash FlowNT$880.6M
Free Cash FlowNT$-416779616
Industry P/E36.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI50.1
SupportNT$118.50
ResistanceNT$147.00
MA 20NT$129.98
MA 50NT$123.68
MA 200NT$117.17
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.04

Valuation

Fair ValueNT$145.92
Target PriceNT$130.00
Upside/Downside1.56%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.29%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.74
Volatility64.38%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.