2600:HKEXAluminum Corporation of China Limited Class H Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
HK$13.61
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The stock is trading at HK$13.61, comfortably above the 20‑day SMA of 13.65 and the 50‑day SMA of 13.42, confirming a bullish trend despite a bearish MACD histogram and a RSI of 50.4. Volume is increasing, and the price sits near the identified support level of 12.40 with resistance around 15.27, suggesting limited downside risk in the near term.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a forward PE of 10.46 versus a trailing PE of 14.33, with a DCF‑derived fair value of 13.06 indicating modest upside. A dividend yield of 2.08% and a payout ratio under 42% point to sustainable cash returns, while a debt‑to‑equity of roughly 50% and strong operating cash flow support the balance sheet despite a 4.7% revenue decline.
Fundamentally, the company trades at a forward PE of 10.46 versus a trailing PE of 14.33, with a DCF‑derived fair value of 13.06 indicating modest upside. A dividend yield of 2.08% and a payout ratio under 42% point to sustainable cash returns, while a debt‑to‑equity of roughly 50% and strong operating cash flow support the balance sheet despite a 4.7% revenue decline.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Increasing trading volume supports price stability
- Price is near the technical support level of 12.40
- Bearish MACD histogram adds short‑term caution
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Fair valuation with ~5% upside to target median price
- Sustainable dividend yield of 2.08% with low payout ratio
- Improving forward PE indicating earnings growth expectations
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Diversified business segments (alumina, energy, trading) reduce commodity concentration
- Strong ROE (~18.5%) and solid operating cash flow
- Government‑linked backing and ongoing infrastructure demand for aluminum
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-4.70%
Profit Margin5.95%
P/E Ratio14.3
ROE18.55%
ROA8.13%
Debt/Equity49.77
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash FlowHK$34.6B
Free Cash FlowHK$20.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI50.4
SupportHK$12.40
ResistanceHK$15.27
MA 20HK$13.65
MA 50HK$13.42
MA 200HK$9.16
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueHK$13.06
Target PriceHK$14.28
Upside/Downside4.90%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.08%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.43
Volatility66.31%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.