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2313:HKEXShenzhou International Group Holdings Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

HK$55.65

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Shenzhou International (2313.HK) is trading just above a key support around HK$55, with the 20‑day SMA (≈61.6) still above price and the 200‑day SMA (≈61.2) providing a neutral long‑term anchor. The RSI sits near 32, suggesting the stock is in oversold territory, while the MACD histogram is negative, indicating bearish momentum. Volume has been increasing, which may support a short‑term bounce, yet the overall trend is classified as neutral and market sentiment is in the "Extreme Greed" zone, hinting at potential over‑enthusiasm.
Fundamentally, the company delivers solid revenue growth of roughly 15% YoY, healthy operating margins (~19%) and a robust cash position that dwarfs its debt. The dividend yield is attractive at about 4.8% with a payout ratio near 53%, and free cash flow remains positive. However, the discounted cash‑flow model values the shares near HK$34, well below the current price of HK$55, implying the stock is overvalued relative to intrinsic estimates despite a strong earnings outlook.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support with rising volume
  • Oversold RSI indicating potential rebound
  • High dividend yield offering immediate income

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Steady revenue growth and solid margins
  • Strong cash generation supporting dividend sustainability
  • Valuation still above DCF fair value, limiting upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta and defensive cash‑rich balance sheet
  • Consistent dividend policy
  • Overvaluation relative to intrinsic value suggests limited long‑run price appreciation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth15.30%
Profit Margin21.16%
P/E Ratio11.4
ROE18.25%
ROA7.10%
Debt/Equity40.04
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash FlowHK$5.7B
Free Cash FlowHK$1.5B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI32.1
SupportHK$55.30
ResistanceHK$66.30
MA 20HK$61.64
MA 50HK$62.09
MA 200HK$61.16
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.23

Valuation

Fair ValueHK$34.42
Target PriceHK$80.95
Upside/Downside45.46%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.78%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.29
Volatility34.72%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.