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196170:KRX196170.KS,0P0001528W,420452 Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-11 - not real-time

₩271,500.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The fund is trading at 271,500 KRW, well below its 20‑day SMA of 353,900, 50‑day SMA of 358,390, and 200‑day SMA of 425,288, signalling a strong bearish price bias. Technical momentum is further confirmed by a bearish MACD histogram of -3,582 and a MACD signal classified as bearish. The RSI sits near 49, suggesting neutral short‑term strength but offering little upside support. Volume trends are decreasing, indicating waning buying interest, while the 30‑day volatility is extremely high at over 81%, amplifying price swings. The beta of 1.25 points to amplified moves relative to the market, and the max drawdown of -48% underscores historical downside risk. Despite these pressures, the Fear & Greed Index reads 86.71 (Extreme Greed), hinting that broader market sentiment may be overly optimistic and could eventually lift risk‑averse assets like this fund.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Price below all major moving averages
  • Bearish MACD and decreasing volume
  • Current price under support level of 286,000 KRW

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Potential bounce toward support at 286,000 KRW
  • High volatility offering swing opportunities
  • Lack of fundamental data limiting confidence

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Deep price discount relative to historical levels
  • Market-wide extreme greed may eventually rotate into risk assets
  • High beta providing upside potential if market recovers

Key Metrics & Analysis

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI49.1
Support₩286,000.00
Resistance₩405,000.00
MA 20₩353,900.00
MA 50₩358,390.00
MA 200₩425,287.50
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index86.71

Valuation

GradeUndervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta1.25
Volatility81.43%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.