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1808:TSEAvic Shougang Biomass Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

CN¥12.20

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Avic Shougang Biomass is trading at CNY 12.20, just above the computed support of 12.02 and below the resistance of 12.34, with the 20‑day SMA (12.17) marginally above the 50‑day SMA (12.08) and essentially flat against the 200‑day SMA (12.18), indicating a neutral price trend. Technical signals are mixed: the RSI sits at a modest 54.5, the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD line sits below its signal line, both pointing to bearish momentum despite an increasing volume trend. Fundamentally, the company shows a PE of 21.5 and a PB of 1.33, yet revenue is down 6.5% year‑over‑year, profit margins hover below 10%, and free cash flow is negative, compounded by a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 3.27 and a meager ROE of 3.9%. The market sentiment index is in “Extreme Greed” territory (76.9), suggesting optimism that may be outpacing the underlying financial health.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram and signal line crossover
  • Price hovering just above technical support
  • Increasing volume suggesting potential short‑term accumulation

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue decline of 6.5% and low profitability margins
  • High leverage with debt‑to‑equity of 3.27
  • Stable but modest operating cash flow offset by negative free cash flow

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Persistently weak ROE and ROA indicating inefficient capital use
  • Overvalued valuation metrics relative to earnings and cash generation
  • Lack of dividend and limited growth outlook in a competitive waste‑management sector

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-6.50%
Profit Margin9.94%
P/E Ratio21.5
ROE3.91%
ROA2.33%
Debt/Equity3.27
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash FlowCN¥23.7M
Free Cash FlowCN¥-8675733

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI54.5
SupportCN¥12.02
ResistanceCN¥12.34
MA 20CN¥12.17
MA 50CN¥12.08
MA 200CN¥12.18
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91

Valuation

GradeOvervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.02
Volatility7.24%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.