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1276:HKEXJiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co.,Ltd Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time

HK$64.85

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma is trading at HK$64.85, well below its 52‑week high of HK$95.2 but still above the DCF‑derived fair value of HK$33.8, implying a significant valuation gap. The stock sits beneath its 20‑day (HK$66.23), 50‑day (HK$70.18) and 200‑day (HK$72.61) moving averages, signaling a bearish technical backdrop, while the RSI of 44 and a bullish MACD histogram suggest limited short‑term upside. Fundamentally, the company posts strong revenue growth (12.7%), high gross margins (86.3%) and robust cash reserves (HK$40.5 bn) with minimal debt, positioning it for continued expansion.
Recent R&D news on novel Nav1.8 sodium‑channel blockers could unlock new therapeutic markets, adding a growth catalyst. However, a PE of 49x versus an industry average of 26x and a price‑to‑book of 6.4x indicate the stock is currently overvalued, and the high 30‑day volatility (33%) combined with moderate beta (0.52) raise short‑term risk concerns.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price below key moving averages indicating bearish momentum
  • Significant overvaluation relative to DCF and industry peers
  • High short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and margin profile
  • Promising pipeline with Nav1.8 blocker development
  • Elevated valuation but improving fundamentals

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust cash generation and minimal debt
  • Expanding product portfolio targeting high‑growth therapeutic areas
  • Long‑term secular demand for innovative pharmaceuticals in China

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth12.70%
Profit Margin24.10%
P/E Ratio49.1
ROE14.34%
ROA8.37%
Debt/Equity0.14
P/B Ratio6.4
Op. Cash FlowHK$11.9B
Free Cash FlowHK$8.5B
Industry P/E26.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI43.8
SupportHK$60.00
ResistanceHK$72.00
MA 20HK$66.23
MA 50HK$70.18
MA 200HK$72.61
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index79

Valuation

Fair ValueHK$33.77
Target PriceHK$99.99
Upside/Downside54.18%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta0.52
Volatility33.09%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.