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003490:KRXKorean Air Lines Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time

₩26,800.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Korean Airlines is trading at 26,800 KRW, comfortably above its 20‑day (≈25,965), 50‑day (≈25,149) and 200‑day (≈23,756) moving averages, signaling a sustained bullish bias. The MACD line sits well above its signal (≈523 vs ≈433) with a positive histogram, while the RSI of 55 confirms momentum is still in the upside zone. Valuation metrics are compelling: a forward P/E of 8.99 is far below the industry average of 29.93, and the DCF‑derived fair value of roughly 99,000 KRW suggests an upside potential of about 18 % from current levels. The company offers a 2.78 % dividend yield with a payout ratio near 44 %, indicating a reasonable level of earnings support, though free cash flow is currently negative and debt‑to‑equity sits at an elevated 212 ×, highlighting balance‑sheet pressure. Volatility remains high at nearly 48 % over the past month, but beta of 0.86 points to slightly lower systematic risk compared with the broader market. In summary, technical indicators and relative valuation favor a near‑term upside, while the heavy debt load and cash‑flow constraints temper enthusiasm for longer horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price above key moving averages and bullish MACD
  • Attractive forward P/E versus industry peers
  • Support level well below current price offering downside cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated debt‑to‑equity ratio limiting financial flexibility
  • Negative free cash flow signaling cash‑flow risk
  • Sustained dividend yield providing income support

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap to DCF fair value
  • Potential recovery in global air travel boosting revenue growth
  • Dividend yield offering steady return despite earnings volatility

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.60%
Profit Margin2.43%
P/E Ratio9.0
ROE2.97%
ROA1.49%
Debt/Equity212.48
Op. Cash Flow₩5246.2B
Free Cash Flow₩-864460472320
Industry P/E29.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI55.4
Support₩24,350.00
Resistance₩28,400.00
MA 20₩25,965.00
MA 50₩25,149.00
MA 200₩23,755.50
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.82

Valuation

Fair Value₩98,951.64
Target Price₩31,666.67
Upside/Downside18.16%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.78%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.86
Volatility47.96%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.