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003490:KRXKorean Air Lines Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time

₩24,300.00

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Valuation appears deeply attractive – the forward P/E sits around 7x versus an industry average near 29x, and the discounted cash‑flow model suggests a fair value exceeding the current price by roughly 27%. The dividend yield of about 3% coupled with a modest payout ratio under 30% further bolsters the case for income stability, even though free cash flow is currently negative. Technical indicators show a bullish trend direction with the 20‑day SMA above the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, while the RSI hovers near the midpoint, indicating neither over‑bought nor over‑sold conditions.
Risks remain notable: volatility is high at around 69% over the past month, and the MACD is in a bearish configuration with a shrinking histogram, suggesting short‑term momentum weakness. Volume is on a decreasing trajectory, and the airline sector carries inherent cyclicality, regulatory exposure, and currency considerations. Nonetheless, the low beta (≈0.44) tempers market‑wide swings, and the strong dividend and upside potential support a buy stance for medium to long horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram indicating weakening momentum
  • Decreasing trading volume
  • Price trading below the 20‑day SMA

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap versus DCF fair value
  • Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio
  • Support level comfortably above current price

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term upside potential exceeding 20% based on intrinsic valuation
  • Sustainable dividend policy
  • Low beta reducing exposure to broader market volatility

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth44.30%
Profit Margin3.09%
P/E Ratio7.3
ROE5.77%
ROA1.43%
Debt/Equity196.25
Op. Cash Flow₩4075.2B
Free Cash Flow₩-1829290770432
Industry P/E29.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI48.3
Support₩22,000.00
Resistance₩29,750.00
MA 20₩25,272.50
MA 50₩24,042.00
MA 200₩23,298.00
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Fair Value₩241,745.70
Target Price₩30,916.67
Upside/Downside27.23%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.09%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.44
Volatility69.03%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.