003490:KRXKorean Air Lines Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
₩24,300.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Valuation appears deeply attractive – the forward P/E sits around 7x versus an industry average near 29x, and the discounted cash‑flow model suggests a fair value exceeding the current price by roughly 27%. The dividend yield of about 3% coupled with a modest payout ratio under 30% further bolsters the case for income stability, even though free cash flow is currently negative. Technical indicators show a bullish trend direction with the 20‑day SMA above the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, while the RSI hovers near the midpoint, indicating neither over‑bought nor over‑sold conditions.
Risks remain notable: volatility is high at around 69% over the past month, and the MACD is in a bearish configuration with a shrinking histogram, suggesting short‑term momentum weakness. Volume is on a decreasing trajectory, and the airline sector carries inherent cyclicality, regulatory exposure, and currency considerations. Nonetheless, the low beta (≈0.44) tempers market‑wide swings, and the strong dividend and upside potential support a buy stance for medium to long horizons.
Risks remain notable: volatility is high at around 69% over the past month, and the MACD is in a bearish configuration with a shrinking histogram, suggesting short‑term momentum weakness. Volume is on a decreasing trajectory, and the airline sector carries inherent cyclicality, regulatory exposure, and currency considerations. Nonetheless, the low beta (≈0.44) tempers market‑wide swings, and the strong dividend and upside potential support a buy stance for medium to long horizons.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram indicating weakening momentum
- Decreasing trading volume
- Price trading below the 20‑day SMA
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation gap versus DCF fair value
- Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio
- Support level comfortably above current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term upside potential exceeding 20% based on intrinsic valuation
- Sustainable dividend policy
- Low beta reducing exposure to broader market volatility
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth44.30%
Profit Margin3.09%
P/E Ratio7.3
ROE5.77%
ROA1.43%
Debt/Equity196.25
Op. Cash Flow₩4075.2B
Free Cash Flow₩-1829290770432
Industry P/E29.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI48.3
Support₩22,000.00
Resistance₩29,750.00
MA 20₩25,272.50
MA 50₩24,042.00
MA 200₩23,298.00
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair Value₩241,745.70
Target Price₩30,916.67
Upside/Downside27.23%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.09%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.44
Volatility69.03%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.