002422:SZSESichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-12 - not real-time
CN¥32.87
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical has posted a dramatic year‑over‑year profit increase in the first half, reinforcing its earnings momentum and supporting a bullish MACD signal. The stock trades with an exceptionally low beta, indicating minimal market‑wide price swings, yet its 30‑day volatility remains elevated, reflecting sizable intraday moves. Current price sits close to a key resistance level while a solid support zone lies below, and trading volume is on an upward trend, suggesting active market participation.
The dividend yield is modest and the payout ratio is relatively high, raising questions about long‑term sustainability despite ample cash generation. Valuation metrics point to a price well above intrinsic estimates, implying that any upside may be limited unless earnings continue to accelerate or the market re‑prices expectations. Investors should weigh the strong short‑term earnings tailwinds against the apparent overvaluation and dividend sustainability concerns.
The dividend yield is modest and the payout ratio is relatively high, raising questions about long‑term sustainability despite ample cash generation. Valuation metrics point to a price well above intrinsic estimates, implying that any upside may be limited unless earnings continue to accelerate or the market re‑prices expectations. Investors should weigh the strong short‑term earnings tailwinds against the apparent overvaluation and dividend sustainability concerns.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD histogram
- Proximity to near‑term resistance
- Elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong earnings acceleration in H1
- Forward earnings expansion narrowing the PE gap
- Increasing trading volume supporting liquidity
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Fundamental overvaluation relative to DCF
- High dividend payout ratio versus cash flow
- Stable demand for pharmaceutical products in core markets
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-15.50%
Profit Margin9.10%
P/E Ratio31.6
ROE6.15%
ROA3.41%
Debt/Equity14.40
P/B Ratio2.3
Op. Cash FlowCN¥2.9B
Free Cash FlowCN¥1.4B
Industry P/E26.7
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI57.7
SupportCN¥29.12
ResistanceCN¥34.07
MA 20CN¥31.48
MA 50CN¥31.47
MA 200CN¥34.62
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.16
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥14.36
Target PriceCN¥39.00
Upside/Downside18.65%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.89%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.10
Volatility36.54%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.