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002414:SZSEWuhan Guide Infrared Co., Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-12 - not real-time

CN¥14.39

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Wuhan Guide Infrared is posting spectacular revenue growth of over 70% year‑over‑year, yet its profitability remains razor‑thin with a profit margin barely above 2% and a return on equity of just over 1%. The stock is trading at an astronomically high forward price‑to‑earnings multiple, far above the industry average, while the discounted cash‑flow model suggests a fair value well below the current price. Liquidity appears robust, with rising volumes and a sizable market cap, but the 30‑day volatility exceeds 45%, indicating a highly erratic price path.
On the technical side, the 20‑day SMA sits below the price, yet the 50‑day SMA is still higher, and the MACD has turned bearish with a negative histogram. The RSI hovers in the low‑30s, hinting at modest oversold pressure but not a clear reversal signal. Combined with a beta that is near zero, the stock’s price movements are driven more by company‑specific factors than broad market swings, amplifying idiosyncratic risk.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD crossover
  • Price hovering just above recent support
  • Elevated short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Extreme price‑to‑earnings multiple versus peers
  • DCF fair value materially below market price
  • Weak profitability metrics (low ROE, thin margins)

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Strong top‑line growth in infrared and AIOT segments
  • Continued exposure to regulatory headwinds in China
  • Potential for valuation compression as market re‑prices fundamentals

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth71.10%
Profit Margin2.15%
P/E Ratio719.5
ROE1.23%
ROA2.77%
Debt/Equity11.28
P/B Ratio8.9
Op. Cash FlowCN¥1.7B
Free Cash FlowCN¥1.1B
Industry P/E34.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI33.8
SupportCN¥14.20
ResistanceCN¥17.55
MA 20CN¥15.78
MA 50CN¥16.23
MA 200CN¥12.62
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index77.2

Valuation

Fair ValueCN¥9.44
Target PriceCN¥18.90
Upside/Downside31.34%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta0.16
Volatility48.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.