002414:SZSEWuhan Guide Infrared Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-12 - not real-time
CN¥14.39
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Wuhan Guide Infrared is posting spectacular revenue growth of over 70% year‑over‑year, yet its profitability remains razor‑thin with a profit margin barely above 2% and a return on equity of just over 1%. The stock is trading at an astronomically high forward price‑to‑earnings multiple, far above the industry average, while the discounted cash‑flow model suggests a fair value well below the current price. Liquidity appears robust, with rising volumes and a sizable market cap, but the 30‑day volatility exceeds 45%, indicating a highly erratic price path.
On the technical side, the 20‑day SMA sits below the price, yet the 50‑day SMA is still higher, and the MACD has turned bearish with a negative histogram. The RSI hovers in the low‑30s, hinting at modest oversold pressure but not a clear reversal signal. Combined with a beta that is near zero, the stock’s price movements are driven more by company‑specific factors than broad market swings, amplifying idiosyncratic risk.
On the technical side, the 20‑day SMA sits below the price, yet the 50‑day SMA is still higher, and the MACD has turned bearish with a negative histogram. The RSI hovers in the low‑30s, hinting at modest oversold pressure but not a clear reversal signal. Combined with a beta that is near zero, the stock’s price movements are driven more by company‑specific factors than broad market swings, amplifying idiosyncratic risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD crossover
- Price hovering just above recent support
- Elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Extreme price‑to‑earnings multiple versus peers
- DCF fair value materially below market price
- Weak profitability metrics (low ROE, thin margins)
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Strong top‑line growth in infrared and AIOT segments
- Continued exposure to regulatory headwinds in China
- Potential for valuation compression as market re‑prices fundamentals
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth71.10%
Profit Margin2.15%
P/E Ratio719.5
ROE1.23%
ROA2.77%
Debt/Equity11.28
P/B Ratio8.9
Op. Cash FlowCN¥1.7B
Free Cash FlowCN¥1.1B
Industry P/E34.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI33.8
SupportCN¥14.20
ResistanceCN¥17.55
MA 20CN¥15.78
MA 50CN¥16.23
MA 200CN¥12.62
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index77.2
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥9.44
Target PriceCN¥18.90
Upside/Downside31.34%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta0.16
Volatility48.29%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.