000983:SSEShanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-07 - not real-time
CN¥7.20
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The short‑term moving averages are aligned in a bullish order, the MACD histogram remains positive and the RSI hovers just above the neutral zone, suggesting momentum is still on the upside. Price is trading comfortably above the identified support level yet remains below the resistance ceiling, with volume trending stable and beta indicating limited market‑wide sensitivity. However, the 30‑day volatility is elevated, hinting at potential price swings.
Fundamental backdrop: Revenue has contracted and margins are modest, while the balance sheet shows a high debt load and negative free cash flow, raising concerns about cash sustainability. The dividend yield is attractive but the payout ratio is high, and the current price sits above the DCF‑derived fair value, implying limited upside. Forward earnings estimates point to improvement, yet sector‑specific regulatory and environmental headwinds add a layer of risk.
Fundamental backdrop: Revenue has contracted and margins are modest, while the balance sheet shows a high debt load and negative free cash flow, raising concerns about cash sustainability. The dividend yield is attractive but the payout ratio is high, and the current price sits above the DCF‑derived fair value, implying limited upside. Forward earnings estimates point to improvement, yet sector‑specific regulatory and environmental headwinds add a layer of risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- bullish technical alignment of moving averages
- price positioned above near‑term support
- weak cash generation and high leverage
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- forward earnings expansion reflected in low forward PE
- generous dividend yield relative to peers
- price still within modest downside cushion from DCF
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- ongoing regulatory pressure on thermal coal
- persistent debt burden and negative free cash flow
- sector transition toward cleaner energy sources
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-20.80%
Profit Margin4.31%
P/E Ratio24.0
ROE5.13%
ROA2.76%
Debt/Equity59.91
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash FlowCN¥5.5B
Free Cash FlowCN¥-19396714496
Industry P/E20.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI52.4
SupportCN¥6.60
ResistanceCN¥7.70
MA 20CN¥7.14
MA 50CN¥6.91
MA 200CN¥6.91
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index68.77
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥6.51
Target PriceCN¥7.72
Upside/Downside7.18%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.56%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.12
Volatility48.91%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.