000661:SZSEChangchun High-Tech Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-07 - not real-time
CN¥90.93
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Current price is trading well above its short‑term moving averages and sits near the lower end of a wide 52‑week range, indicating limited upside momentum. The technical picture is mixed: a bearish trend persists, yet the MACD histogram has turned marginally positive and volume is on the rise, suggesting a potential short‑term bounce off the nearby support level.
Fundamentally, the stock appears significantly overvalued—its market price is far beyond the discounted cash‑flow estimate and its price‑to‑earnings multiple exceeds both the industry average and its own forward earnings multiple. The dividend payout ratio is above one, raising questions about sustainability, while high volatility and a modest beta point to a risk‑on environment that could amplify price swings.
Fundamentally, the stock appears significantly overvalued—its market price is far beyond the discounted cash‑flow estimate and its price‑to‑earnings multiple exceeds both the industry average and its own forward earnings multiple. The dividend payout ratio is above one, raising questions about sustainability, while high volatility and a modest beta point to a risk‑on environment that could amplify price swings.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical bias with price below key moving averages
- Current valuation far exceeds intrinsic value estimates
- Dividend payout exceeds earnings, questioning cash‑flow sustainability
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Forward earnings outlook improves, compressing forward PE
- Volume trend is strengthening, offering potential for a corrective rally
- Industry growth prospects remain solid despite regulatory headwinds
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Potential re‑rating toward discounted cash‑flow fair value
- Long‑term demand for specialty and generic pharmaceuticals in China
- Diversification into real‑estate assets could provide ancillary cash flow
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-14.60%
Profit Margin7.44%
P/E Ratio38.0
ROE3.25%
ROA3.31%
Debt/Equity7.71
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash FlowCN¥730.4M
Free Cash FlowCN¥-848937728
Industry P/E25.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI45.8
SupportCN¥87.26
ResistanceCN¥106.00
MA 20CN¥91.15
MA 50CN¥94.75
MA 200CN¥104.48
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index68.77
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥23.37
Target PriceCN¥150.24
Upside/Downside65.23%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.86%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.19
Volatility41.66%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.