000568:SZSELuzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-15 - not real-time
CN¥107.86
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Luzhou Laojiao is trading at CNY 107.86, well below its 20‑day (CNY 110.8), 50‑day (CNY 114.9) and 200‑day (CNY 123.9) moving averages, signaling a short‑term bearish technical outlook. The RSI of 41.6 and a bearish MACD histogram reinforce this momentum, while volume is on a decreasing trend, suggesting limited buying pressure near the current support at CNY 103.
Despite the technical weakness, the company boasts exceptional profitability (gross margin 86%, operating margin 60%, profit margin 42%) and a strong ROE of 26.6%, supported by robust cash generation (free cash flow CNY 11.8 bn). Valuation metrics indicate the stock is undervalued – the DCF fair value is CNY 126.35 and analyst targets average around CNY 144, implying upside of over 30%. The dividend yield of 5.5% with a 69% payout ratio appears sustainable given the solid cash flow, making the stock attractive for income‑focused investors.
Despite the technical weakness, the company boasts exceptional profitability (gross margin 86%, operating margin 60%, profit margin 42%) and a strong ROE of 26.6%, supported by robust cash generation (free cash flow CNY 11.8 bn). Valuation metrics indicate the stock is undervalued – the DCF fair value is CNY 126.35 and analyst targets average around CNY 144, implying upside of over 30%. The dividend yield of 5.5% with a 69% payout ratio appears sustainable given the solid cash flow, making the stock attractive for income‑focused investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators (price below SMAs, MACD bearish)
- Proximity to near‑term support at CNY 103
- Decreasing trading volume indicating limited short‑term buying pressure
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation gap to DCF fair value and analyst price targets
- Strong cash flow and high, sustainable dividend yield
- Low beta (0.12) and defensive consumer‑defensive sector positioning
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- High ROE (26.6%) and durable profit margins
- Sustainable dividend policy supported by free cash flow
- Brand strength in the Chinese premium liquor market and favorable analyst consensus
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-9.80%
Profit Margin42.11%
P/E Ratio12.5
ROE26.59%
ROA15.54%
Debt/Equity13.67
P/B Ratio3.2
Op. Cash FlowCN¥16.5B
Free Cash FlowCN¥11.8B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI41.6
SupportCN¥103.00
ResistanceCN¥126.78
MA 20CN¥110.81
MA 50CN¥114.90
MA 200CN¥123.90
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueCN¥126.35
Target PriceCN¥143.32
Upside/Downside32.87%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.52%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.12
Volatility38.48%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.