ZG:NASDAQZillow Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-12 - not real-time
$40.65
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Zillow Group posted solid top‑line momentum in Q1, with revenue climbing 18.4% year‑over‑year and EPS beating expectations at $0.53 versus $0.41 a year ago. However, the company saw a 3% decline in average monthly unique users and issued a Q2 outlook that disappointed investors, prompting the stock to dip despite the earnings beat.
On the technical side, the price sits just above the 20‑day SMA but remains well below the 200‑day SMA, while the RSI hovers in the low‑mid range and the MACD has turned bearish, signaling limited upside in the near term.
Fundamentally, Zillow trades at a forward PE that matches industry norms but its current PE is dramatically higher than peers, and a discounted cash‑flow model values the shares below today’s market price, suggesting the stock is overvalued at current levels.
On the technical side, the price sits just above the 20‑day SMA but remains well below the 200‑day SMA, while the RSI hovers in the low‑mid range and the MACD has turned bearish, signaling limited upside in the near term.
Fundamentally, Zillow trades at a forward PE that matches industry norms but its current PE is dramatically higher than peers, and a discounted cash‑flow model values the shares below today’s market price, suggesting the stock is overvalued at current levels.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD and RSI indicating limited upside
- Price flirting with near‑term support amid weak Q2 guidance
- Elevated 30‑day volatility and high beta
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and improving forward EPS outlook
- Substantial cash cushion offsetting a high debt load
- Continued user‑base pressure and legal scrutiny
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Secular shift toward digital real‑estate platforms
- Forward PE aligns with industry peers, suggesting valuation normalization
- Potential upside from operational efficiencies and higher-margin SaaS offerings
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth18.40%
Profit Margin2.27%
P/E Ratio162.6
ROE1.33%
ROA0.15%
Debt/Equity9.73
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$464.0M
Free Cash Flow$285.5M
Industry P/E17.0
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI38.4
Support$40.42
Resistance$48.50
MA 20$44.47
MA 50$43.59
MA 200$63.61
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.98
Valuation
Fair Value$37.19
Target Price$64.78
Upside/Downside59.37%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.30
Volatility43.42%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.