Z:NASDAQZillow Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-12 - not real-time
$40.44
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading just above its 20‑day SMA (≈44) and marginally above the 50‑day SMA, while the 200‑day SMA remains far higher (≈65), indicating a long‑term downtrend. RSI sits at 38, suggesting modest oversold pressure, but the MACD is bearish with the histogram in negative territory. Volatility is elevated at over 42% (30‑day) and beta exceeds 1.2, pointing to a price that swings sharply with the market.
Fundamental and news catalysts: Revenue grew 18% YoY and rentals are projected to rise ~30% in 2026, bolstered by a new AI model rollout and a strategic Preview+Realtor.com partnership. However, the current price (≈$40.44) sits above the DCF fair value ($37.19) and the PE ratio (162×) dwarfs the industry average (≈17×), signaling overvaluation on earnings. Forward‑PE improves to ~13× and analysts’ median target is $62.5, implying a sizable upside if growth materializes. Ongoing class‑action investigations add a legal‑risk overlay.
Fundamental and news catalysts: Revenue grew 18% YoY and rentals are projected to rise ~30% in 2026, bolstered by a new AI model rollout and a strategic Preview+Realtor.com partnership. However, the current price (≈$40.44) sits above the DCF fair value ($37.19) and the PE ratio (162×) dwarfs the industry average (≈17×), signaling overvaluation on earnings. Forward‑PE improves to ~13× and analysts’ median target is $62.5, implying a sizable upside if growth materializes. Ongoing class‑action investigations add a legal‑risk overlay.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near immediate support (~$40.3) with limited upside to $48.4 resistance
- Bearish MACD and neutral trend despite modest RSI oversold signal
- Q2 revenue guidance (≈$750‑$765M) fell short of market expectations
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth (18% YoY) and projected 30% rentals expansion
- Forward PE (~13×) aligns with peers, suggesting valuation compression
- Analyst median target (~$62.5) implies ~50% upside from current levels
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strategic AI deployment and expanded platform services could sustain growth
- High historical volatility and beta keep price sensitivity elevated
- Potential legal exposure from class‑action investigation adds uncertainty
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth18.40%
Profit Margin2.27%
P/E Ratio161.8
ROE1.33%
ROA0.15%
Debt/Equity9.73
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$464.0M
Free Cash Flow$285.5M
Industry P/E17.0
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI38.0
Support$40.28
Resistance$48.44
MA 20$44.29
MA 50$43.58
MA 200$65.11
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.98
Valuation
Fair Value$37.19
Target Price$64.67
Upside/Downside59.91%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.30
Volatility42.21%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.