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YAL:ASXYancoal Australia Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-07 - not real-time

A$6.97

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Yancoal is trading at a level that mirrors its discounted cash‑flow estimate, suggesting a fair valuation at present. Technical indicators show a neutral trend with the price sitting just above the short‑term moving average, an RSI hovering around the midpoint, and a bullish MACD histogram, while volume is on an upward trajectory. Fundamentally, the company posted a revenue decline but maintains solid gross and operating margins, and a forward earnings outlook that compresses the PE dramatically, pointing to earnings upside. The dividend yield remains appealing, yet the payout ratio exceeds earnings, raising concerns about sustainability. A negative beta and high short‑term volatility highlight a defensive price pattern that can move sharply opposite to broader market swings. Overall, the stock sits at a crossroads between modest growth potential and sector‑specific headwinds.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near fair‑value DCF estimate
  • Bullish MACD and rising volume
  • Revenue contraction and dividend payout stress

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Forward earnings upside compressing PE
  • Strong cash position and low debt
  • Improving cost guidance

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Transition risk in thermal coal sector
  • Diversified export markets offsetting some regulatory pressure
  • Sustainable cash flow generation despite ESG challenges

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-11.10%
Profit Margin7.32%
P/E Ratio21.1
ROE4.80%
ROA3.12%
Debt/Equity0.93
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash FlowA$1.3B
Free Cash FlowA$543.2M
Industry P/E22.1

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI50.5
SupportA$6.30
ResistanceA$7.31
MA 20A$6.80
MA 50A$7.17
MA 200A$6.08
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.02

Valuation

Fair ValueA$6.98
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.64%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.45
Volatility44.36%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.