YAL:ASXYancoal Australia Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-07 - not real-time
A$6.97
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Yancoal is trading at a level that mirrors its discounted cash‑flow estimate, suggesting a fair valuation at present. Technical indicators show a neutral trend with the price sitting just above the short‑term moving average, an RSI hovering around the midpoint, and a bullish MACD histogram, while volume is on an upward trajectory. Fundamentally, the company posted a revenue decline but maintains solid gross and operating margins, and a forward earnings outlook that compresses the PE dramatically, pointing to earnings upside. The dividend yield remains appealing, yet the payout ratio exceeds earnings, raising concerns about sustainability. A negative beta and high short‑term volatility highlight a defensive price pattern that can move sharply opposite to broader market swings. Overall, the stock sits at a crossroads between modest growth potential and sector‑specific headwinds.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near fair‑value DCF estimate
- Bullish MACD and rising volume
- Revenue contraction and dividend payout stress
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Forward earnings upside compressing PE
- Strong cash position and low debt
- Improving cost guidance
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Transition risk in thermal coal sector
- Diversified export markets offsetting some regulatory pressure
- Sustainable cash flow generation despite ESG challenges
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-11.10%
Profit Margin7.32%
P/E Ratio21.1
ROE4.80%
ROA3.12%
Debt/Equity0.93
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash FlowA$1.3B
Free Cash FlowA$543.2M
Industry P/E22.1
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI50.5
SupportA$6.30
ResistanceA$7.31
MA 20A$6.80
MA 50A$7.17
MA 200A$6.08
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.02
Valuation
Fair ValueA$6.98
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.64%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.45
Volatility44.36%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.