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XBTY:NASDAQGraniteShares YieldBOOST Bitcoin ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-11 - not real-time

$6.83

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The ETF is trading at $6.83, which sits below its 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages of 7.05 and 7.33, and far beneath the 200‑day average of 13.57. The price is hugging the identified support level of $6.78 and faces resistance around $7.25. Momentum indicators show an oversold RSI of 33.9 and a MACD histogram that has just turned positive, giving a bullish signal despite the overall bearish trend. Volatility remains elevated at 22.68% (30‑day) and beta is above market at 1.24**, underscoring heightened price swings.
The fund’s appeal rests on its weekly distribution of $0.1358, translating to an annualized distribution rate of 98.47% and an SEC yield of 1.70%. However, the expense ratio is relatively steep at 1.15%, the year‑to‑date return is negative at -14.17%, and the maximum historical drawdown exceeds 74%. The “Extreme Greed” reading of 90.73 on the Fear & Greed Index suggests market enthusiasm for crypto assets, but the fund’s small asset base and concentration in Bitcoin futures keep overall risk elevated.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price is near technical support at $6.78
  • RSI indicates oversold conditions
  • Attractive weekly distribution yield

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Potential rebound in Bitcoin price
  • Bullish MACD signal despite bearish trend
  • High distribution rate offsetting expense ratio

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • High expense ratio and limited asset base
  • Concentration risk in a volatile crypto sector
  • Historical max drawdown of over 74%

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio1.15%
AUM$17.6M
Inception Date2025-05-12
Avg Daily Volume52,360
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI33.9
Support$6.78
Resistance$7.25
MA 20$7.05
MA 50$7.33
MA 200$13.57
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index90.73

Risk Assessment

Beta1.24
Volatility22.68%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.