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XBIL:NASDAQUS Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-26 - not real-time

$50.13

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

XBIL is trading at $50.125, essentially flat against its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages of $50.07, $50.09 and $50.11, indicating a tight price band. The 14‑day RSI of 59.3 suggests modest upside momentum without being overbought. MACD is bullish, with the line (0.0088) above the signal (0.0025) and a positive histogram, supporting a short‑term rally. Nonetheless, the computed trend direction is labeled “bearish,” and the price sits just below the nearest resistance at $50.13. Support at $50.01 provides a narrow floor, while volatility over the past 30 days is under 1 %, reflecting the ultra‑short nature of the underlying Treasury bills.
The fund delivers a 4.11 % dividend yield, an attractive cash‑flow feature for income‑focused investors. With an expense ratio of only 0.15 % and zero tracking error, the ETF tracks its benchmark almost perfectly. Beta is effectively zero (0.009), confirming minimal sensitivity to equity market swings. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 87.7 (“Extreme Greed”), indicating strong market appetite for safe‑haven assets. Liquidity is solid, as daily volume (≈164 k shares) exceeds the 10‑day average of 94.9 k shares, reducing execution risk. Currency exposure is limited to USD, so foreign‑exchange risk is negligible. Overall, the combination of low volatility, high yield, and strong market sentiment makes XBIL a low‑risk, income‑oriented play in the current environment.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • bullish MACD crossover
  • 4.11% dividend yield
  • very low 30‑day volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • stable income generation
  • zero tracking error
  • near‑zero beta to equities

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • interest‑rate environment affecting short‑term Treasury yields
  • high concentration in US Treasury bills
  • consistent low‑cost structure

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.15%
AUM$741.9M
Inception Date2023-03-06
Avg Daily Volume94,880
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield4.11%

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI59.3
Support$50.01
Resistance$50.13
MA 20$50.07
MA 50$50.09
MA 200$50.11
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index87.7

Risk Assessment

Beta0.01
Volatility0.92%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.