WTM:NYSEWhite Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-29 - not real-time
$2,150.34
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
White Mountains Insurance Group is currently trading in a narrow band where the price sits above the longer‑term moving averages but just shy of the short‑term average, suggesting a modest bullish bias. The RSI is hovering near the neutral midpoint and the MACD histogram has turned negative, indicating potential short‑term downside pressure despite the overall bullish trend direction. Volume is on a downtrend, which may limit upside momentum, while the stock’s beta is exceptionally low, underscoring its defensive character.
Fundamentally, the company’s valuation appears stretched: the discounted cash‑flow estimate is well below the market price and the price‑to‑earnings multiple is markedly lower than peers, yet revenue is contracting and operating margins are thin. The dividend yield is modest and the payout ratio is minimal, supporting sustainability. Overall, the blend of a defensive risk profile with an overvalued price relative to intrinsic estimates suggests caution, especially given the recent earnings miss and declining revenue trend.
Fundamentally, the company’s valuation appears stretched: the discounted cash‑flow estimate is well below the market price and the price‑to‑earnings multiple is markedly lower than peers, yet revenue is contracting and operating margins are thin. The dividend yield is modest and the payout ratio is minimal, supporting sustainability. Overall, the blend of a defensive risk profile with an overvalued price relative to intrinsic estimates suggests caution, especially given the recent earnings miss and declining revenue trend.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price positioned between short‑ and long‑term moving averages
- Negative MACD histogram signaling short‑term weakness
- Decreasing volume limiting upward thrust
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value substantially below market price
- Revenue contraction and thin operating margins
- Sustainable but modest dividend supporting income appeal
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Overvaluation relative to intrinsic estimates
- Persistent revenue decline and low growth outlook
- Defensive beta but limited upside potential given valuation gap
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-10.80%
Profit Margin37.02%
P/E Ratio5.3
ROE19.67%
ROA3.32%
Debt/Equity13.52
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$621.2M
Free Cash Flow$246.3M
Industry P/E17.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI49.3
Support$2,050.00
Resistance$2,249.05
MA 20$2,175.64
MA 50$2,106.24
MA 200$2,096.09
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index84.54
Valuation
Fair Value$1,610.16
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.05%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.16
Volatility23.36%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.