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WSM:NYSEWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-11 - not real-time

$182.10

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Williams‑Sonoma (WSM) is trading near the midpoint of its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, which sit just below the 200‑day average, indicating a neutral longer‑term trend but a slight short‑term bias. The RSI is in the mid‑40s, reinforcing a lack of strong momentum, while the MACD shows a bearish histogram and signal, suggesting downward pressure in the near term. Fundamentals reveal a solid profit profile with double‑digit ROE, healthy operating cash flow, and a modest dividend payout, yet revenue is contracting and the DCF fair value estimate sits well below the current market price, pointing to valuation concerns. The market sentiment is extremely bullish, as reflected by the “Extreme Greed” reading on the Fear & Greed Index, but the stock faces elevated volatility and beta, highlighting the need for cautious positioning.
Overall, the blend of steady cash generation, attractive dividend yield, and strong return metrics supports a long‑run case, but the current price premium and weakening top‑line growth suggest a wait‑and‑see approach for short‑term investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram signaling near‑term downside
  • Price hovering close to identified support level
  • Neutral RSI and lack of strong momentum

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong cash flow and low payout ratio supporting dividend sustainability
  • High ROE and operating margins indicating efficient operations
  • Current price premium relative to DCF fair value limiting upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistently high return on equity and solid profitability
  • Stable dividend yield with room for growth
  • Brand strength across multiple retail channels providing resilience

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-4.30%
Profit Margin13.94%
P/E Ratio20.6
ROE51.52%
ROA16.54%
Debt/Equity69.96
P/B Ratio10.4
Op. Cash Flow$1.3B
Free Cash Flow$867.6M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI44.4
Support$174.61
Resistance$208.74
MA 20$189.24
MA 50$187.04
MA 200$193.63
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index90.73

Valuation

Fair Value$94.36
Target Price$206.74
Upside/Downside13.53%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.67%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.48
Volatility33.35%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.