WSBK:NASDAQWinchester Bancorp, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-30 - not real-time
$13.07
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Winchester Bancorp posted a strong rebound in earnings, with net income rising to $4.4 million (≈$0.49 per share) from a $0.87 million loss last year, and revenue expanding by 35 %. The bank’s operating margin of 26 % and profit margin of 9.5 % underscore solid profitability, while the 30‑day volatility sits at about 13 % and the beta is an exceptionally low 0.01. However, the stock trades at a price‑to‑earnings ratio of 52.28, more than **three times** the regional‑bank industry average of 18.06, and the discounted‑cash‑flow fair value (~$6.63) is over‑half of the current price of $13.07. The “Extreme Greed” index of 90.13 further signals that the market may be over‑inflated.
Technical metrics show a bullish overall trend direction with increasing volume, yet the MACD is bearish (negative histogram) and the price rests above both the 20‑day (≈13.05) and 50‑day (≈12.93) moving averages, suggesting mixed signals. The ultra‑low beta and modest liquidity (average 10‑day volume ≈4,000) add to the uncertainty, making the stock’s upside limited while the downside risk remains modest.
Technical metrics show a bullish overall trend direction with increasing volume, yet the MACD is bearish (negative histogram) and the price rests above both the 20‑day (≈13.05) and 50‑day (≈12.93) moving averages, suggesting mixed signals. The ultra‑low beta and modest liquidity (average 10‑day volume ≈4,000) add to the uncertainty, making the stock’s upside limited while the downside risk remains modest.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD despite bullish trend direction
- Price above 20‑day/50‑day SMA
- High P/E relative to industry
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Significant overvaluation (P/E & DCF gap)
- Extreme Greed index indicating market excess
- Low beta limiting potential upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Steady earnings growth and strong operating margins
- Regional‑bank sector stability
- Limited liquidity and modest volatility
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth35.10%
Profit Margin9.51%
P/E Ratio52.3
ROE2.26%
ROA0.23%
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash Flow$6.2M
Industry P/E18.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI54.9
Support$12.61
Resistance$13.19
MA 20$13.05
MA 50$12.93
MA 200$11.79
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.13
Valuation
Fair Value$6.63
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.01
Volatility13.06%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.