WOW:ASXWoolworths Group Ltd Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-26 - not real-time
A$40.43
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
At AUD 40.43, Woolworths Group Limited shows a bullish moving-average alignment, with shorter averages sitting above longer ones. The last 30 days have gained 2.7%. With RSI at 58.0 the momentum picture is neutral, alongside a bearish MACD signal. Price has been bracketed by support at AUD 38.06 and resistance at AUD 41.19.
On valuation the read is overvalued — an earnings multiple of 82.5, absent a reliable peer benchmark. Sell-side targets cluster 8.4% below the current quote. Revenue is growing at 3.4% on a 0.9% profit margin. The 2.32% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 3 — low. With 30-day volatility of 19.2%, a beta of 0.07 and a maximum drawdown of 22.5%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons diverge: hold near-term but sell on a long view, at 5/10 conviction over the longer horizon.
On valuation the read is overvalued — an earnings multiple of 82.5, absent a reliable peer benchmark. Sell-side targets cluster 8.4% below the current quote. Revenue is growing at 3.4% on a 0.9% profit margin. The 2.32% dividend yield looks stretched against payout coverage.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 3 — low. With 30-day volatility of 19.2%, a beta of 0.07 and a maximum drawdown of 22.5%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons diverge: hold near-term but sell on a long view, at 5/10 conviction over the longer horizon.
Top Market Events
Woolworths Group Ltd ASX: WOW shares have surged 33% in 2026 and paid a dividend.Coles or Woolworths: The ASX supermarket showdown.Intelligent Investor3yWoolworths Group Limited ASX: WOW - Announcements+ Company announcements and prices are delayed...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 34.66
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Dividend yield of 2.32% looks stretched against payout coverage
- Trading above the 200-day average of 34.66
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Dividend yield of 2.32% looks stretched against payout coverage
- Analyst targets imply -8.4% versus the current price
- P/E ratio of 82.5
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.40%
Profit Margin0.85%
P/E Ratio82.5
ROE11.88%
ROA3.64%
Debt/Equity361.53
P/B Ratio10.7
Op. Cash FlowA$4.9B
Free Cash FlowA$2.3B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI58.0
SupportA$38.06
ResistanceA$41.19
MA 20A$39.80
MA 50A$39.61
MA 200A$34.66
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index93.84
Valuation
Fair ValueA$14.44
Target PriceA$37.04
Upside/Downside-8.39%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield2.32%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.07
Volatility19.24%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.