WHC:ASXWhitehaven Coal Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time
A$8.87
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Whitehaven Coal is trading at AUD 8.87, just below its 20‑day SMA of 8.17 and comfortably above the 200‑day SMA of 7.73, while the RSI sits at 63.7, indicating momentum but no immediate overbought signal. The MACD histogram is positive (0.09) with a bullish crossover, yet the overall trend is classified as neutral and 30‑day volatility remains elevated at roughly 45%, suggesting price swings may continue in the short run.
Fundamentally, the stock appears deeply undervalued: its trailing P/E of 11.2 is well below the industry average of 21.6, and the discounted cash‑flow model places fair value near AUD 26, more than double the current price. The company maintains a modest dividend yield of 0.9% with a low payout ratio (≈19%), strong free cash flow, and a manageable debt‑to‑equity of 34%, while recent news highlights steady coal sales, improved pricing, a successful debt refinancing and reaffirmed full‑year guidance.
Fundamentally, the stock appears deeply undervalued: its trailing P/E of 11.2 is well below the industry average of 21.6, and the discounted cash‑flow model places fair value near AUD 26, more than double the current price. The company maintains a modest dividend yield of 0.9% with a low payout ratio (≈19%), strong free cash flow, and a manageable debt‑to‑equity of 34%, while recent news highlights steady coal sales, improved pricing, a successful debt refinancing and reaffirmed full‑year guidance.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD histogram and price above short‑term SMA
- Positive news on sales, pricing and debt refinancing
- Stable volume indicating adequate liquidity
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation gap versus DCF fair value
- Low P/E relative to peers and sustainable dividend
- Affirmed guidance and improving price trends
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Exposure to coal sector transition and climate regulation
- Revenue contraction and reliance on thermal coal markets
- Strong balance sheet but long‑term demand uncertainty
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-27.70%
Profit Margin12.66%
P/E Ratio11.2
ROE11.33%
ROA0.19%
Debt/Equity34.20
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash FlowA$390.0M
Free Cash FlowA$1.7B
Industry P/E21.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI63.7
SupportA$7.63
ResistanceA$9.07
MA 20A$8.17
MA 50A$8.46
MA 200A$7.73
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.73
Valuation
Fair ValueA$26.12
Target PriceA$8.78
Upside/Downside-1.03%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.90%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.14
Volatility44.65%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.