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WHC:ASXWhitehaven Coal Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time

A$8.87

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Whitehaven Coal is trading at AUD 8.87, just below its 20‑day SMA of 8.17 and comfortably above the 200‑day SMA of 7.73, while the RSI sits at 63.7, indicating momentum but no immediate overbought signal. The MACD histogram is positive (0.09) with a bullish crossover, yet the overall trend is classified as neutral and 30‑day volatility remains elevated at roughly 45%, suggesting price swings may continue in the short run.
Fundamentally, the stock appears deeply undervalued: its trailing P/E of 11.2 is well below the industry average of 21.6, and the discounted cash‑flow model places fair value near AUD 26, more than double the current price. The company maintains a modest dividend yield of 0.9% with a low payout ratio (≈19%), strong free cash flow, and a manageable debt‑to‑equity of 34%, while recent news highlights steady coal sales, improved pricing, a successful debt refinancing and reaffirmed full‑year guidance.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD histogram and price above short‑term SMA
  • Positive news on sales, pricing and debt refinancing
  • Stable volume indicating adequate liquidity

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap versus DCF fair value
  • Low P/E relative to peers and sustainable dividend
  • Affirmed guidance and improving price trends

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Exposure to coal sector transition and climate regulation
  • Revenue contraction and reliance on thermal coal markets
  • Strong balance sheet but long‑term demand uncertainty

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-27.70%
Profit Margin12.66%
P/E Ratio11.2
ROE11.33%
ROA0.19%
Debt/Equity34.20
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash FlowA$390.0M
Free Cash FlowA$1.7B
Industry P/E21.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI63.7
SupportA$7.63
ResistanceA$9.07
MA 20A$8.17
MA 50A$8.46
MA 200A$7.73
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.73

Valuation

Fair ValueA$26.12
Target PriceA$8.78
Upside/Downside-1.03%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.90%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.14
Volatility44.65%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.