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WDS:ASXWoodside Energy Group Ltd Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-22 - not real-time

A$31.67

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Woodside Energy Group trades near its discounted cash‑flow estimate and enjoys a P/E ratio well below the sector average, suggesting a modest valuation cushion. Technical signals are mixed – the MACD histogram is positive and the signal line is bullish, while the price sits just under the 20‑day SMA and above the 200‑day SMA, indicating a neutral to mildly positive short‑term outlook. Fundamentally, the company delivers a high dividend yield exceeding five percent, but a payout ratio approaching three‑quarters and a recent negative free‑cash‑flow raise questions about long‑term sustainability. Recent earnings highlighted progress on the Scarborough and Trion projects, reinforcing the growth narrative amid a sector that remains volatile and sensitive to regulatory shifts.
Overall, Woodside presents a blend of value and growth attributes: attractive earnings multiples, solid cash‑flow generation from operating activities, and a dividend that appeals to income‑focused investors, yet it faces medium‑to‑high sector and regulatory risks as the energy transition accelerates.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD histogram with a neutral RSI
  • Price positioned near immediate support level
  • High dividend yield offering short‑term income

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • P/E substantially below industry average
  • Project pipeline progressing, especially Scarborough and Trion
  • Attractive dividend yield enhancing total return

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Exposure to LNG demand but growing regulatory and carbon‑pricing pressures
  • Diversification into lower‑carbon initiatives
  • Dividend sustainability concerns due to high payout ratio and negative free cash flow

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-11.10%
Profit Margin20.93%
P/E Ratio15.8
ROE7.20%
ROA2.60%
Debt/Equity34.44
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash FlowA$7.2B
Free Cash FlowA$-314375008
Industry P/E21.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.6
SupportA$29.96
ResistanceA$34.05
MA 20A$31.79
MA 50A$32.64
MA 200A$27.00
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.5

Valuation

Fair ValueA$30.37
Target PriceA$33.81
Upside/Downside6.77%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield5.19%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.09
Volatility31.83%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.