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WDC:NASDAQWestern Digital Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-10 - not real-time

$480.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Price at $480 sits well above the 20‑day SMA of $408 and the 50‑day SMA of $336, confirming a strong uptrend, while the MACD line remains above its signal and volume is increasing, underscoring bullish momentum. RSI of 76 signals overbought conditions, hinting at short‑term pull‑back risk, but the technical picture remains positive. Revenue surged 45.5% YoY to $11.78 bn, with gross margin at 45%, operating margin at 37% and profit margin exceeding 55%, reflecting solid pricing power. Return on equity is an eye‑popping 86% and cash on hand ($3.24 bn) comfortably exceeds debt ($1.72 bn), while the dividend payout is a modest 2.7% of earnings, making the payout highly sustainable. The DCF fair value of $224 is far below the current $480 price, indicating the stock is materially overvalued on intrinsic grounds, yet a forward PE of 27.6 sits below the industry average of 38.5 and analysts project a modest upside of ~3‑5% with a median target of $500. Beta of 2.34 and 30‑day volatility near 59% flag heightened market sensitivity, and the technology‑hardware sector’s cyclical nature adds high sector risk, though strong liquidity and a diversified geographic footprint keep liquidity and currency risks low.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • RSI indicating overbought conditions
  • Price near 52‑week high with limited upside
  • High short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and robust margins
  • Analyst price targets above current level
  • Low payout ratio and strong cash generation

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated valuation relative to DCF
  • High beta and sector cyclicality
  • Sustainable dividend and solid balance sheet

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth45.50%
Profit Margin55.29%
P/E Ratio28.7
ROE85.92%
ROA14.65%
Debt/Equity17.81
P/B Ratio23.0
Op. Cash Flow$3.3B
Free Cash Flow$2.1B
Industry P/E38.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI76.3
Support$339.50
Resistance$483.87
MA 20$408.75
MA 50$335.56
MA 200$201.00
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.73

Valuation

Fair Value$223.90
Target Price$495.68
Upside/Downside3.27%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.13%

Risk Assessment

Beta2.34
Volatility58.87%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.