WCP:TSXWhitecap Resources Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-13 - not real-time
CA$16.11
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading above its short‑term moving averages with a bullish RSI and a positive MACD histogram, indicating continued upward momentum. Price sits comfortably above recent support and is approaching a key resistance level, while volatility remains elevated and beta is low, suggesting price swings but limited systematic risk.
Fundamental and news drivers: Management has lifted full‑year production guidance after a strong first‑quarter performance, reinforcing growth prospects. However, net income was hit by a sizable non‑cash hedging loss, tempering earnings optimism. The company maintains a high dividend yield with a payout ratio near 100%, supported by solid operating cash flow, and its discounted cash‑flow model indicates a substantial upside to current pricing.
Fundamental and news drivers: Management has lifted full‑year production guidance after a strong first‑quarter performance, reinforcing growth prospects. However, net income was hit by a sizable non‑cash hedging loss, tempering earnings optimism. The company maintains a high dividend yield with a payout ratio near 100%, supported by solid operating cash flow, and its discounted cash‑flow model indicates a substantial upside to current pricing.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (price above SMAs, positive MACD)
- Lifted production guidance supporting near‑term earnings
- Attractive dividend yield despite near‑full payout
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Significant upside to DCF‑derived fair value
- Continued production growth and capital allocation discipline
- Strong cash flow generation to fund deleveraging and dividends
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term valuation gap provides multi‑year upside potential
- Sustainable cash flow and strategic asset base in Western Canada
- Dividend income stream appealing for income‑focused investors
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth114.80%
Profit Margin13.73%
P/E Ratio22.1
ROE10.16%
ROA5.79%
Debt/Equity33.01
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash FlowCA$3.5B
Free Cash FlowCA$1.3B
Industry P/E20.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI61.5
SupportCA$13.57
ResistanceCA$16.43
MA 20CA$15.33
MA 50CA$14.88
MA 200CA$12.15
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.45
Valuation
Fair ValueCA$35.29
Target PriceCA$19.13
Upside/Downside18.77%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.53%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.22
Volatility40.47%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.