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VTR:NYSEVentas, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$86.21

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Ventas, Inc. (VTR) is trading at $86.21, comfortably above its 20‑day ($85.74), 50‑day ($80.76) and 200‑day ($72.43) simple moving averages, indicating a sustained bullish momentum. The price sits near the upper end of its technical range, with a strong support level at $82.38 and resistance at $87.87, while the RSI of 62.8 suggests continued buying pressure but approaching overbought territory. Although the MACD shows a bearish signal (histogram –0.34), the overall trend remains bullish, reinforced by a low beta of 0.22 and a modest 30‑day volatility of 18.3%. Recent earnings beat and guidance above consensus, driven by a 10% FFO growth from senior‑housing assets, have earned the stock a Buy consensus from 20 analysts with a median target of $90, implying a modest upside of about 5%. However, valuation metrics are stretched – a trailing PE of 159.6 versus an industry average of 33, price‑to‑FFO of 24.9, and a payout ratio of 355% raise concerns about dividend sustainability. The balance sheet shows high leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~102%) and cash reserves of $0.74 B against $13.2 B of debt, which could pressure cash flow if interest rates rise.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High valuation multiples (PE 160, price/FFO 25)
  • Bearish MACD signal despite bullish price action
  • Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (>350%)

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong earnings and revenue growth (21% YoY)
  • Senior‑housing tailwinds driving 10% FFO growth
  • Analyst price target of $90 providing ~5% upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated leverage (debt‑to‑equity ~102%)
  • Dividend sustainability risk given high payout ratio
  • Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value ($58.6)

Key Metrics & Analysis

REIT Metrics

P/FFO24.865550821539944

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI62.8
Support$82.38
Resistance$87.87
MA 20$85.74
MA 50$80.76
MA 200$72.43
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.66

Risk Assessment

Beta0.22
Volatility18.31%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.