VST:NYSE

Vistra Corp.

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$163.62

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Visura Corp. is trading well above its intrinsic DCF estimate and carries a trailing P/E that is dramatically higher than the utility peer average, suggesting the market has priced in strong future growth despite current earnings constraints. The balance sheet is heavily leveraged, with debt far outpacing equity, and free cash flow is negative, raising concerns about the sustainability of its modest dividend. Technicals show a neutral price trend, a bearish MACD divergence and an RSI hovering around the midpoint, while volatility remains elevated and beta is high, indicating price swings are likely to continue. Recent analyst upgrades and the announced expansion of a residential virtual power plant in Texas provide a compelling growth narrative, but the valuation gap and cash flow pressures temper enthusiasm. Investors should weigh the upside from strategic initiatives against the overvalued pricing and financial risk before committing.

Trading Recommendations

Short Term

< 1 year
hold
Conviction: 6/10

Key Factors

  • bearish MACD histogram
  • price trading above DCF fair value
  • elevated volatility and high beta

Medium Term

1–3 years
buy
Conviction: 8/10

Key Factors

  • analyst upgrades and raised price targets
  • expansion of virtual power plant and battery integration
  • forward earnings outlook improving dramatically

Long Term

> 3 years
buy
Conviction: 7/10

Key Factors

  • strategic positioning in diversified generation mix
  • long‑term demand for clean energy and storage solutions
  • potential to deleverage through asset sales and operational cash flow

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.60%
Profit Margin5.32%
P/E Ratio75.1
ROE17.66%
ROA3.49%
Debt/Equity399.55
P/B Ratio21.1
Op. Cash Flow$4.1B
Free Cash Flow$-459249984
Industry P/E20.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI48.5
Support$147.78
Resistance$178.31
MA 20$167.08
MA 50$163.39
MA 200$181.89
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair Value$147.83
Target Price$233.42
Upside/Downside42.66%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.56%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.75
Volatility46.68%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies. Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.