VLO:NYSEValero Energy Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-05 - not real-time
$370.72
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
Valero Energy Corporation trades at $370.72, with its short-term moving averages stacked above the longer-term ones — a bullish trend structure. Across the trailing 30 sessions it gained 22.6%. With RSI at 75.2 the momentum picture is overbought, alongside a bullish MACD signal. The recent range runs from support at $301.35 up to resistance at $375.11.
The shares look fair, trading on 15.5 times earnings below a sector average of 17.8. The average analyst target implies 13.8% below today's level. Revenue is growing at 51.7% on a 5.4% profit margin. The 1.29% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 29.1%, a beta of -0.25 and a maximum drawdown of 12.7%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Across every horizon the signals point the same way: buy, at a conviction of 4 out of 10.
The shares look fair, trading on 15.5 times earnings below a sector average of 17.8. The average analyst target implies 13.8% below today's level. Revenue is growing at 51.7% on a 5.4% profit margin. The 1.29% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 29.1%, a beta of -0.25 and a maximum drawdown of 12.7%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Across every horizon the signals point the same way: buy, at a conviction of 4 out of 10.
Top Market Events
Valero crushed Q2 with a 24% EPS beat as refining margins nearly doubled to $23.Valero Energy stock is trading close to its 52-week peak after reporting record second-quarter 2026A strong stock as of late has been Valero Energy VLO .
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 75.2 signals overbought conditions
- Trading above the 200-day average of 239.67
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 75.2 signals overbought conditions
- P/E of 15.5 versus sector average of 17.8
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 15.5 versus sector average of 17.8
- Analyst targets imply -13.8% versus the current price
- Revenue growth of +51.7%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth51.70%
Profit Margin5.45%
P/E Ratio15.5
ROE27.64%
ROA10.56%
Debt/Equity40.15
P/B Ratio4.3
Op. Cash Flow$10.9B
Free Cash Flow$8.4B
Industry P/E17.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI75.2
Support$301.35
Resistance$375.11
MA 20$347.47
MA 50$315.01
MA 200$239.67
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index95.48
Valuation
Fair Value$996.57
Target Price$319.63
Upside/Downside-13.78%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.29%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.25
Volatility29.10%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.