VLO:NYSEValero Energy Corporation analysis
Data as of Sep 5, 2026 - not real-time
- Latest price
- $370.72
- Risk: low
- 3/10Low risk
Summary
Valero Energy Corporation trades at $370.72, with its short-term moving averages stacked above the longer-term ones — a bullish trend structure. Across the trailing 30 sessions it gained 22.6%. With RSI at 75.2 the momentum picture is overbought, alongside a bullish MACD signal. The recent range runs from support at $301.35 up to resistance at $375.11.
The shares look fair, trading on 15.5 times earnings below a sector average of 17.8. The average analyst target implies 13.8% below today's level. Revenue is growing at 51.7% on a 5.4% profit margin. The 1.29% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 29.1%, a beta of -0.25 and a maximum drawdown of 12.7%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Across every horizon the signals point the same way: buy, at a conviction of 4 out of 10.
The shares look fair, trading on 15.5 times earnings below a sector average of 17.8. The average analyst target implies 13.8% below today's level. Revenue is growing at 51.7% on a 5.4% profit margin. The 1.29% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 3 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 29.1%, a beta of -0.25 and a maximum drawdown of 12.7%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Across every horizon the signals point the same way: buy, at a conviction of 4 out of 10.
Top market events
- Valero crushed Q2 with a 24% EPS beat as refining margins nearly doubled to $23.
- Valero Energy stock is trading close to its 52-week peak after reporting record second-quarter 2026
- A strong stock as of late has been Valero Energy VLO .
Market outlook
Short term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence5/105 out of 10
Key factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 75.2 signals overbought conditions
- Trading above the 200-day average of 239.67
Medium term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence4/104 out of 10
Key factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 75.2 signals overbought conditions
- P/E of 15.5 versus sector average of 17.8
Long term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence4/104 out of 10
Key factors
- P/E of 15.5 versus sector average of 17.8
- Analyst targets imply -13.8% versus the current price
- Revenue growth of +51.7%
Key metrics
Financial health
Revenue Growth51.70%
Profit Margin5.45%
P/E Ratio15.5
ROE27.64%
ROA10.56%
Debt/Equity40.15
P/B Ratio4.3
Op. Cash Flow$10.9B
Free Cash Flow$8.4B
Industry P/E17.8
Technical analysis
TrendBullish
RSI75.2
Support$301.35
Resistance$375.11
MA 20$347.47
MA 50$315.01
MA 200$239.67
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index95.48
Valuation
Fair Value$996.57
Target Price$319.63
Upside/Downside-13.78%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.29%
Risk assessment
Beta-0.25
Volatility29.10%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.