UTRE:NASDAQUS Treasury 3 Year Note ETF Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-08 - not real-time
$49.35
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
The UTRE ETF offers a solid 3.78% dividend yield and a strong YTD return of roughly 17%, while keeping costs low with a 0.15% expense ratio, making it an attractive short‑government exposure at a price of $49.35 near its 20‑day SMA of $49.50.
Technical indicators show the fund trading just above its identified support at $49.28, with the 20‑day, 50‑day, and 200‑day SMAs tightly clustered, indicating limited price momentum. The RSI of 42 points to a neutral‑to‑slightly‑oversold condition, but a bearish MACD histogram and a broader bearish trend suggest short‑term downside risk despite the overall market sentiment being in "Extreme Greed" (Fear & Greed Index 90.9). Low volatility (2.57% over 30 days) and an almost zero beta (0.01) reinforce the fund's defensive profile, though modest trading volume and a small asset base introduce a medium liquidity consideration.
Technical indicators show the fund trading just above its identified support at $49.28, with the 20‑day, 50‑day, and 200‑day SMAs tightly clustered, indicating limited price momentum. The RSI of 42 points to a neutral‑to‑slightly‑oversold condition, but a bearish MACD histogram and a broader bearish trend suggest short‑term downside risk despite the overall market sentiment being in "Extreme Greed" (Fear & Greed Index 90.9). Low volatility (2.57% over 30 days) and an almost zero beta (0.01) reinforce the fund's defensive profile, though modest trading volume and a small asset base introduce a medium liquidity consideration.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- YTD return of +17% but price is testing support at $49.28
- Bearish MACD and overall bearish trend indicate near‑term downside pressure
- Increasing volume trend may provide short‑term price stability
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Stable Treasury exposure with a 3.78% dividend yield
- Low beta and low volatility support risk‑adjusted returns
- Extreme greed sentiment could drive continued inflows into safe‑haven assets
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Short‑duration government bonds mitigate interest‑rate risk over the long horizon
- Low expense ratio preserves net yield
- Zero tracking error ensures tight alignment with the underlying Treasury benchmark
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio0.15%
AUM$11.8M
Inception Date2023-03-27
Avg Daily Volume1,300
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield3.78%
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI41.9
Support$49.28
Resistance$49.73
MA 20$49.50
MA 50$49.58
MA 200$49.78
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.93
Risk Assessment
Beta0.01
Volatility2.57%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.