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UTL:NYSEUNITIL Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-04 - not real-time

$49.26

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Unitil is trading at $49.26, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $50.62 but below the 50‑day SMA of $51.94, indicating a short‑term pullback within a neutral trend. The RSI of 39.6 suggests the stock is edging toward oversold territory, while the bearish MACD histogram points to lingering downside pressure. Nevertheless, the price sits just above the support level of $48.39 and remains well under the resistance of $52.19, offering a modest upside cushion. Fundamentally, the company posts a 27% revenue growth rate, a PE of 15.7 versus an industry average of 22.3, and a dividend yield of 3.79% with a 58% payout ratio, signaling attractive value and income characteristics.
The balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 147 and negative free cash flow, which tempers enthusiasm despite solid operating cash flow of $129 M. Recent earnings beat expectations, driven by the integration of Maine gas acquisitions that added $4.1 M of incremental net income, reinforcing the dividend’s sustainability in the near term. The DCF model projects a fair value near $131, implying a substantial long‑run upside, though the market currently reflects only a modest 13% upside estimate.
Overall, the stock presents a blend of value and growth attributes: undervalued relative to peers, supported by a strong dividend, yet shadowed by leverage and short‑term technical weakness. Investors should weigh the solid earnings momentum and dividend appeal against the debt load and bearish technical signals when forming a view.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Recent earnings beat and positive earnings guidance
  • Technical bearish momentum (MACD, RSI near oversold)
  • Proximity to support level limiting downside risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Valuation gap vs industry (lower PE, high dividend yield)
  • Strong revenue growth and improving gas margin contributions
  • Potential upside toward resistance and mid‑range price targets

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Stable utility cash flows supporting dividend sustainability
  • Significant long‑run upside implied by DCF fair value
  • Defensive sector positioning with low beta and consistent demand

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth27.00%
Profit Margin9.60%
P/E Ratio15.7
ROE9.55%
ROA3.48%
Debt/Equity146.92
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow$129.3M
Free Cash Flow$-81058752
Industry P/E22.3

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI39.6
Support$48.39
Resistance$52.19
MA 20$50.62
MA 50$51.94
MA 200$49.82
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.66

Valuation

Fair Value$131.02
Target Price$55.67
Upside/Downside13.01%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.79%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.13
Volatility24.67%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.