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UTI:NYSEUniversal Technical Institute Inc Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-14 - not real-time

$39.14

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Universal Technical Institute posted a revenue growth of 6.7% year‑over‑year and a gross margin of 55.5%, but its operating margin is essentially flat at 0.15% and profit margin sits at just 4.9%, highlighting modest profitability despite strong top‑line performance. Its balance sheet shows a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 93% and cash of $162 M, leaving a net‑debt position that adds financial risk. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 51.5 and a price‑to‑book of 6.34, while the discounted cash‑flow model values the company at only $5.87 per share, indicating the market is pricing in aggressive growth expectations. Analyst consensus is a strong‑buy, and the recent earnings beat – EPS of $0.93 versus expectations – reinforces short‑term momentum. However, insider selling of 3 M shares and a decreasing volume trend temper enthusiasm.
Technical indicators show the 20‑day SMA (40.11) sits just above the current price of $39.14, while the 50‑day SMA (38.14) remains below, suggesting a nascent bullish alignment but with the price still under short‑term resistance. The MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, RSI is neutral at 48, and 30‑day volatility is high at ~71%, all pointing to a choppy near‑term environment. The stock’s beta of ~1.1 and extreme‑greed sentiment index (89.86) add to the risk profile, making the current valuation appear stretched relative to fundamentals.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Recent earnings beat and strong analyst sentiment
  • Bearish MACD histogram and decreasing volume
  • Price trading below the 20‑day SMA support

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish SMA crossover (20‑day above 50‑day above 200‑day)
  • Reaffirmed FY2026 revenue outlook of $905‑$915 M
  • Robust demand in both UTI and Concorde segments

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Severe overvaluation versus DCF fair value
  • High debt‑to‑equity ratio adding financial leverage risk
  • Lack of dividend and high volatility environment

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.70%
Profit Margin4.91%
P/E Ratio51.5
ROE13.47%
ROA4.39%
Debt/Equity93.03
P/B Ratio6.3
Op. Cash Flow$82.2M
Free Cash Flow$27.1M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI48.2
Support$35.70
Resistance$45.74
MA 20$40.11
MA 50$38.14
MA 200$31.82
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$5.87
Target Price$42.50
Upside/Downside8.58%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.08
Volatility70.99%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.