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USVN:NASDAQUS Treasury 7 Year Note ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-07 - not real-time

$47.89

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

USVN trades at $47.89, below its 20‑day SMA (48.13), 50‑day SMA (48.28) and 200‑day SMA (48.60), indicating a bearish bias. The RSI of 43 and a bearish MACD histogram reinforce the short‑term downside pressure, while the price sits just above the identified support at 47.76 and below resistance at 48.48. Despite this technical weakness, the fund delivers a solid 4.06% dividend yield and a modest 30‑day volatility of 4.49%, underscoring its income‑oriented, low‑risk profile. Tracking error is zero and the expense ratio is a modest 0.15%, which further enhances cost efficiency. The fund’s beta of 0.04 confirms near‑zero correlation with broader equity markets, and the extreme‑greed sentiment (F&G index 90.93) suggests investors are favoring safe‑haven assets.
Liquidity remains a concern, with an average 10‑day volume of only 820 shares and a market‑cap not disclosed, placing liquidity risk at a medium level. Nevertheless, the low maximum drawdown of just 3.08% and the absence of currency exposure keep overall portfolio risk modest. Given the current technical setup, a short‑term hold stance is prudent, while the attractive yield and defensive nature support a medium‑ to long‑term buy recommendation, especially if interest‑rate pressures ease. Investors should monitor volume trends and any shifts in Treasury yields, which could alter the support‑resistance dynamics. In sum, USVN offers a low‑volatility, income‑focused option with limited tracking error, suitable for risk‑averse investors seeking stable returns.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price below key SMAs indicating bearish bias
  • support level near 47.76 offers downside cushion
  • increasing volume suggests potential stabilization

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • 4.06% dividend yield provides attractive income
  • low volatility (4.49% 30‑day) supports steady performance
  • zero tracking error and low expense ratio enhance cost efficiency

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • near‑zero beta and minimal drawdown reinforce defensive posture
  • government bond exposure offers capital preservation
  • extreme‑greed market sentiment favors safe‑haven assets

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.15%
AUM$7.7M
Inception Date2023-03-27
Avg Daily Volume820
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield4.06%

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI43.0
Support$47.76
Resistance$48.47
MA 20$48.13
MA 50$48.28
MA 200$48.60
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.93

Risk Assessment

Beta0.04
Volatility4.49%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.