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USVM:NASDAQVictoryShares US Small Mid Cap Value Momentum ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-07 - not real-time

$103.31

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

USVM is trading at $103.31, just below its recent high of $104.63, indicating limited upside before hitting resistance. The 20‑day SMA of 101.9 remains above the 50‑day SMA of 98.0 and the 200‑day SMA of 92.9, underscoring a sustained bullish trend. Momentum metrics are mixed: RSI sits at 61.8, well above the neutral 50 level, while the MACD histogram has turned slightly negative, signaling a near‑term bearish tilt. Volume has been increasing, supporting the price advance and suggesting continued market participation. The fund’s expense ratio of 0.29% is modest for its category, and tracking error is effectively zero, reflecting tight index replication. Institutional interest is evident from a recent 13F filing that earmarked USVM as a core vehicle for small‑ and mid‑cap exposure, reinforcing confidence in its value‑momentum blend.
The ETF’s beta of 0.96 indicates volatility close to the broader market, while a 30‑day volatility of 15.8% remains manageable. A YTD return of 13.6% and a three‑year annualized return of roughly 20.8% demonstrate strong performance relative to peers. Dividend yield of 1.79% adds modest income, and the fund’s assets of about $1.57 billion provide a solid liquidity base. The Fear & Greed Index at 90.9 (Extreme Greed) reflects bullish market sentiment toward USVM. With a max drawdown of only 8.5% and a support level near 98.2, downside risk appears limited. Taken together, the technical backdrop, favorable fundamentals, and fresh institutional backing suggest USVM is well positioned for continued upside.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near resistance at $104.63
  • MACD histogram turning negative
  • Strong institutional interest

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • SMA alignment confirming bullish trend
  • Low expense ratio and zero tracking error
  • Continued volume expansion

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent outperformance over 3‑year horizon
  • Diversified small‑mid cap value‑momentum exposure
  • Modest dividend yield and manageable volatility

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.29%
AUM$1.6B
Inception Date2017-10-24
Avg Daily Volume56,070
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield1.79%

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI61.8
Support$98.18
Resistance$104.63
MA 20$101.91
MA 50$98.03
MA 200$92.93
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.93

Risk Assessment

Beta0.96
Volatility15.78%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.