USDEUR:ICEU.S. DOLLAR / EURO analysis
Data as of Oct 6, 2026 - not real-time
- Latest price
- €0.89
- Risk: low
- 2/10Low risk
Summary
At €0.8919, USD/EUR shows a bullish moving-average alignment, with shorter averages sitting above longer ones. It has gained 4.1% over the past 30 days. RSI sits at 84.7, which reads as overbought, and MACD momentum is bullish. The recent range runs from support at €0.8581 up to resistance at €0.8959.
The policy rate differential of +1.82 percentage points works in favour of the base currency. The pair moderately tracks the dollar index, at a correlation of +0.46.
Risk scores 2 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 3.9% and a beta of 0.28, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
This one splits by horizon — buy in the near term, hold further out, at 4/10 long-term conviction.
The policy rate differential of +1.82 percentage points works in favour of the base currency. The pair moderately tracks the dollar index, at a correlation of +0.46.
Risk scores 2 out of 10, which is low for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 3.9% and a beta of 0.28, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
This one splits by horizon — buy in the near term, hold further out, at 4/10 long-term conviction.
Market outlook
Short term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence6/106 out of 10
Key factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 84.7 signals overbought conditions
- Trading above the 200-day average of 0.86
Medium term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence5/105 out of 10
Key factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 84.7 signals overbought conditions
- Trading above the 200-day average of 0.86
Long term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence4/104 out of 10
Key factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 84.7 signals overbought conditions
- 30-day volatility of 3.9%
Key metrics
FX metrics
Carry Rate Differential1.82%
Central Bank DivergenceMedium
Volatility RegimeLow
DXY Correlation0.46
Real Yield Spread103.36%
Macro CatalystsPolicy Rate Differential Of +1.82 Pp, Dollar-Index Correlation Of +0.46, 30-Day Realised Volatility Of 3.9%
Technical analysis
TrendBullish
RSI84.7
Support€0.86
Resistance€0.90
MA 20€0.87
MA 50€0.87
MA 200€0.86
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index93.71
Risk assessment
Beta0.28
Volatility3.93%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.