UPST:NASDAQUpstart Holdings, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-31 - not real-time
$28.80
Latest Price
9/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
At $28.80, Upstart Holdings, Inc. shows a bearish moving-average alignment, with shorter averages beneath longer ones. Relative strength is 44.8 — neutral — and the MACD signal is bearish. The recent range runs from support at $27.95 up to resistance at $34.69.
On valuation the read is fair — earnings multiple of 55.4 versus a 16.9 sector average, above the peer group. Consensus targets land 40.3% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 42.3% on a 4.7% profit margin.
Risk comes out at 9 of a possible 10, a high reading. With 30-day volatility of 52.7%, a beta of 2.90 and a maximum drawdown of 65.0%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on sell, with conviction of 4/10.
On valuation the read is fair — earnings multiple of 55.4 versus a 16.9 sector average, above the peer group. Consensus targets land 40.3% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 42.3% on a 4.7% profit margin.
Risk comes out at 9 of a possible 10, a high reading. With 30-day volatility of 52.7%, a beta of 2.90 and a maximum drawdown of 65.0%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
Short, medium and long-term reads agree on sell, with conviction of 4/10.
Top Market Events
AI lending platform Upstart NASDAQ:UPST reported in Q2 CY2026, with sales up 41.Upstart Holdings, Inc. is scaling rapidly, driven by AI-powered loan origination and expanding transaction volumes....Seeking Alpha26dUpstart Holdings, Inc. UPST Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptGood afternoon, and welcome to the Upstart...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- Trading below the 200-day average of 34.25
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- P/E of 55.4 versus sector average of 16.9
- Trading below the 200-day average of 34.25
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 55.4 versus sector average of 16.9
- Analyst targets imply +40.3% versus the current price
- Revenue growth of +42.3%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth42.30%
Profit Margin4.69%
P/E Ratio55.4
ROE7.94%
ROA1.98%
Debt/Equity258.01
P/B Ratio3.5
Op. Cash Flow$-284006016
Free Cash Flow$-132382752
Industry P/E16.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI44.8
Support$27.95
Resistance$34.69
MA 20$29.99
MA 50$30.61
MA 200$34.25
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.96
Valuation
Target Price$40.40
Upside/Downside40.28%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta2.90
Volatility52.71%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.