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UNP:NYSEUnion Pacific Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time

$267.45

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Union Pacific (UNP) is trading near its 20‑day SMA, which sits above the 50‑day SMA, confirming a bullish technical backdrop despite a modest bearish MACD histogram. The stock benefits from a strong profit margin of nearly 30% and an ROE above 40%, while its forward PE of ~19 is well below the industry average of 31, indicating relative undervaluation. Analyst Harrison Bauer has raised his price target to $305, reinforcing the upside potential highlighted by the current market price of $267.45, which sits about 9% below the DCF‑derived fair value ceiling. The recent acceptance of the UNP‑Norfolk Southern merger application by the Surface Transportation Board adds a significant strategic catalyst, potentially expanding network scale and earnings. Dividend sustainability looks solid with a 45% payout ratio, robust operating cash flow, and a 2.06% yield, making the stock attractive for income‑focused investors. However, volume trends are decreasing and the beta, while low in computed models, suggests limited price volatility, aligning with a moderate risk profile. Overall, the combination of favorable valuation metrics, strong fundamentals, and merger‑driven growth prospects supports a positive outlook across time horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish SMA crossover confirming short‑term momentum
  • Analyst upgrade and higher price target
  • Merger approval momentum driving near‑term sentiment

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strategic synergies from the Norfolk Southern merger
  • Attractive valuation relative to peers
  • Sustainable dividend and strong cash flow generation

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • High ROE and consistent profit margins
  • Long‑term growth from expanded rail network
  • Dividend yield and payout ratio supporting income stability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.20%
Profit Margin29.20%
P/E Ratio22.0
ROE40.69%
ROA9.14%
Debt/Equity162.25
P/B Ratio8.2
Op. Cash Flow$9.5B
Free Cash Flow$4.0B
Industry P/E31.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI50.8
Support$258.66
Resistance$279.70
MA 20$267.90
MA 50$263.45
MA 200$241.78
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.13

Valuation

Fair Value$51.65
Target Price$291.73
Upside/Downside9.08%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.06%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.35
Volatility25.94%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.