UNP:NYSEUnion Pacific Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-17 - not real-time
Latest Price
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Union Pacific (UNP) is trading near its 20‑day SMA, which sits above the 50‑day SMA, confirming a bullish technical backdrop despite a modest bearish MACD histogram. The stock benefits from a strong profit margin of nearly 30% and an ROE above 40%, while its forward PE of ~19 is well below the industry average of 31, indicating relative undervaluation. Analyst Harrison Bauer has raised his price target to $305, reinforcing the upside potential highlighted by the current market price of $267.45, which sits about 9% below the DCF‑derived fair value ceiling. The recent acceptance of the UNP‑Norfolk Southern merger application by the Surface Transportation Board adds a significant strategic catalyst, potentially expanding network scale and earnings. Dividend sustainability looks solid with a 45% payout ratio, robust operating cash flow, and a 2.06% yield, making the stock attractive for income‑focused investors. However, volume trends are decreasing and the beta, while low in computed models, suggests limited price volatility, aligning with a moderate risk profile. Overall, the combination of favorable valuation metrics, strong fundamentals, and merger‑driven growth prospects supports a positive outlook across time horizons.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearKey Factors
- Bullish SMA crossover confirming short‑term momentum
- Analyst upgrade and higher price target
- Merger approval momentum driving near‑term sentiment
Medium Term
1–3 yearsKey Factors
- Strategic synergies from the Norfolk Southern merger
- Attractive valuation relative to peers
- Sustainable dividend and strong cash flow generation
Long Term
> 3 yearsKey Factors
- High ROE and consistent profit margins
- Long‑term growth from expanded rail network
- Dividend yield and payout ratio supporting income stability
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Technical Analysis
Valuation
Risk Assessment
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.