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UI:NYSEUbiquiti Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-27 - not real-time

$608.16

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) shows a mixed picture. The stock trades well below its short‑term and medium‑term moving averages, while the relative strength index sits in oversold territory, suggesting a potential short‑term bounce. Technical momentum is bearish, with the MACD line below its signal and a negative histogram, and volatility remains elevated, reflecting a history of large price swings. On the fundamentals side, revenue growth is solid, margins are strong, and the recent earnings report beat expectations, reinforcing the company’s operational strength. However, the discounted cash‑flow valuation is far lower than the current market price, indicating that the stock may be overvalued relative to its intrinsic worth, despite a dividend that appears sustainable given low payout and healthy cash flow.
Investors should weigh the attractive earnings momentum and dividend against the high valuation gap, pronounced beta, and significant drawdown risk before deciding on positioning.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold technical indicator suggests limited upside
  • Earnings beat provides short‑term support
  • High volatility may cause price swings

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and margins
  • Valuation gap between market price and intrinsic value
  • Sustainable dividend adds income appeal

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Market price significantly exceeds DCF estimate
  • High beta and historical drawdown increase downside risk
  • Competitive pressures in the communications equipment sector

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth18.70%
Profit Margin30.43%
P/E Ratio39.1
ROE115.01%
ROA45.91%
Debt/Equity5.56
P/B Ratio36.2
Op. Cash Flow$760.5M
Free Cash Flow$547.3M
Industry P/E40.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI27.8
Support$575.14
Resistance$1,038.38
MA 20$788.28
MA 50$851.68
MA 200$676.53
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.25

Valuation

Fair Value$258.84
Target Price$826.00
Upside/Downside35.82%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.53%

Risk Assessment

Beta2.18
Volatility71.25%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.