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UHR:SIXSwatch Group Ltd. Bearer Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

CHF 33.96

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The Swatch Group trades above its short‑term moving average while the longer‑term average remains lower, suggesting a bullish bias in price momentum. However, the momentum oscillator is in the lower half of its range, hinting at modest oversold pressure, and the MACD histogram is negative, indicating bearish momentum in the near term. Fundamentally, the stock commands an exceptionally high price‑to‑earnings multiple and the discounted cash‑flow estimate is less than half of the current market price, flagging a significant valuation gap. The dividend yield appears attractive, but the payout ratio far exceeds sustainable levels, raising concerns about dividend continuity. Combined with thin profit margins and modest returns on equity, the company faces pressure to justify its premium valuation despite a strong brand portfolio.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD despite overall bullish trend
  • Valuation gap between market price and DCF
  • Unsustainable dividend payout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Persistent high PE relative to peers
  • Low profitability margins and ROE
  • Stable but modest trading volume

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Strong brand equity and diversified luxury portfolio
  • Potential for margin improvement through cost efficiencies
  • Long‑term upside if valuation compresses toward intrinsic value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-2.10%
Profit Margin0.05%
P/E Ratio147.7
ROE0.21%
ROA0.62%
Debt/Equity0.33
P/B Ratio0.2
Op. Cash FlowCHF507.0M
Free Cash FlowCHF249.9M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI35.9
SupportCHF 32.52
ResistanceCHF 40.08
MA 20CHF 37.07
MA 50CHF 36.18
MA 200CHF 32.22
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index75.54

Valuation

Fair ValueCHF 17.70
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.65%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.23
Volatility49.35%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.