UDR:NYSEUDR, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time
$35.41
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
UDR is trading at $35.41, below its 20‑day ($37.32) and 50‑day ($37.27) SMAs and hovering just above the identified support level of $35.28. The RSI of 31.7 signals oversold conditions, while a bearish MACD histogram reinforces short‑term downside pressure. Despite these technical headwinds, the company delivered a Q4 earnings beat, posted a 318% EPS surge driven by strategic acquisitions, and raised its dividend, lifting the stock about 5% in pre‑market trading. Fundamentally, UDR offers an attractive 4.77% dividend yield, but the payout ratio of 152% and a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 145% raise sustainability concerns. The DCF fair‑value estimate of $18.43 is well below the current price, indicating the market may be overvalued relative to cash‑flow fundamentals, while a forward PE of 64 suggests earnings are expected to decline. Overall, the blend of strong cash‑flow generation, high leverage, and an overvalued price creates a mixed outlook.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near technical support with oversold RSI
- Recent earnings beat and dividend increase
- Potential short‑term bounce despite bearish MACD
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- High dividend yield offset by unsustainable payout ratio
- Elevated leverage (Debt/Equity >140%)
- Valuation still above DCF fair value
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Structural exposure to residential REIT fundamentals
- Ongoing debt repayment pressure
- Dividend sustainability risk if cash flow weakens
Key Metrics & Analysis
REIT Metrics
P/FFO14.765389088966103
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI31.7
Support$35.28
Resistance$38.64
MA 20$37.32
MA 50$37.27
MA 200$37.73
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Risk Assessment
Beta0.65
Volatility23.99%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.