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TXT:NYSETextron Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-06 - not real-time

$93.09

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Textron (TXT) is trading around $93.09, modestly above its 20‑day SMA of $91.19 and the 200‑day SMA of $86.80. Technicals show a bullish MACD histogram (+0.37) and a neutral‑to‑slightly‑positive RSI (~55), while volume is on an upward trend, suggesting short‑term momentum support. The company delivered Q1 CY2026 revenue growth of 11.8% YoY and beat non‑GAAP EPS expectations, reinforcing its earnings momentum. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $62.45 places the current price in the overvalued range, and the market sentiment index reflects “Extreme Greed,” hinting at potential price correction risk.
Fundamentally, Textron enjoys a low payout ratio (<1.6%), a modest dividend yield (0.09%), solid operating cash flow, and a diversified aerospace & defense portfolio that includes growing drone and e‑aviation segments. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage (Debt/Equity ~53%) and a beta below 1, indicating lower systematic risk. Given the blend of short‑term technical upside, solid earnings growth, but an overvalued valuation, investors should weigh upside potential against valuation pressure.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and price above short‑term moving averages
  • Increasing trading volume supporting momentum
  • Q1 earnings beat and strong revenue growth

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Robust top‑line growth and healthy cash generation
  • Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • Moderate volatility and beta indicating limited systematic risk

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term defense and aerospace spending tailwinds
  • Diversified product mix including drones and e‑aviation
  • Sustainable dividend with very low payout ratio

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth11.80%
Profit Margin6.15%
P/E Ratio17.8
ROE12.25%
ROA4.56%
Debt/Equity52.67
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$1.3B
Free Cash Flow$622.4M
Industry P/E30.6

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI54.8
Support$86.77
Resistance$97.61
MA 20$91.19
MA 50$91.69
MA 200$86.80
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.38

Valuation

Fair Value$62.46
Target Price$103.45
Upside/Downside11.13%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.09%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.91
Volatility33.19%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.