TXT:NYSETextron Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-06 - not real-time
$93.09
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Textron (TXT) is trading around $93.09, modestly above its 20‑day SMA of $91.19 and the 200‑day SMA of $86.80. Technicals show a bullish MACD histogram (+0.37) and a neutral‑to‑slightly‑positive RSI (~55), while volume is on an upward trend, suggesting short‑term momentum support. The company delivered Q1 CY2026 revenue growth of 11.8% YoY and beat non‑GAAP EPS expectations, reinforcing its earnings momentum. However, the DCF‑derived fair value of roughly $62.45 places the current price in the overvalued range, and the market sentiment index reflects “Extreme Greed,” hinting at potential price correction risk.
Fundamentally, Textron enjoys a low payout ratio (<1.6%), a modest dividend yield (0.09%), solid operating cash flow, and a diversified aerospace & defense portfolio that includes growing drone and e‑aviation segments. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage (Debt/Equity ~53%) and a beta below 1, indicating lower systematic risk. Given the blend of short‑term technical upside, solid earnings growth, but an overvalued valuation, investors should weigh upside potential against valuation pressure.
Fundamentally, Textron enjoys a low payout ratio (<1.6%), a modest dividend yield (0.09%), solid operating cash flow, and a diversified aerospace & defense portfolio that includes growing drone and e‑aviation segments. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage (Debt/Equity ~53%) and a beta below 1, indicating lower systematic risk. Given the blend of short‑term technical upside, solid earnings growth, but an overvalued valuation, investors should weigh upside potential against valuation pressure.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and price above short‑term moving averages
- Increasing trading volume supporting momentum
- Q1 earnings beat and strong revenue growth
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Robust top‑line growth and healthy cash generation
- Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
- Moderate volatility and beta indicating limited systematic risk
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term defense and aerospace spending tailwinds
- Diversified product mix including drones and e‑aviation
- Sustainable dividend with very low payout ratio
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth11.80%
Profit Margin6.15%
P/E Ratio17.8
ROE12.25%
ROA4.56%
Debt/Equity52.67
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$1.3B
Free Cash Flow$622.4M
Industry P/E30.6
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI54.8
Support$86.77
Resistance$97.61
MA 20$91.19
MA 50$91.69
MA 200$86.80
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.38
Valuation
Fair Value$62.46
Target Price$103.45
Upside/Downside11.13%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.09%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.91
Volatility33.19%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.