TXN:NASDAQTexas Instruments Incorporated Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-06 - not real-time
$289.44
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Texas Instruments is riding a strong bullish technical backdrop, with price comfortably above its short‑term and medium‑term moving averages and a bullish MACD histogram confirming upward momentum. The RSI is perched in the extreme upper zone, signaling that the stock may be overbought in the very near term, while the market sentiment index is in the "Extreme Greed" range, reflecting heightened investor optimism. Fundamentally, the company posted robust revenue growth and margin expansion, beating consensus estimates and raising guidance well ahead of expectations. However, valuation metrics are stretched; the price‑to‑earnings multiple sits well above the industry average and the discounted cash‑flow model suggests a modest downside relative to the current price. Dividend sustainability is a concern given the very high payout ratio despite solid cash flow generation. The blend of strong earnings momentum, elevated valuation, and heightened volatility creates a nuanced picture that warrants careful positioning across time horizons.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Technical overbought condition (RSI) and strong bullish momentum
- Valuation premium relative to peers
- Elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustained earnings growth and margin expansion
- Guidance above consensus supporting revenue trajectory
- Robust cash generation offsetting dividend payout concerns
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Market leadership in analog and embedded segments
- Exposure to diversified end‑markets reducing concentration risk
- Potential valuation correction as price aligns with DCF fair value
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth18.60%
Profit Margin29.11%
P/E Ratio49.6
ROE32.35%
ROA12.16%
Debt/Equity83.74
P/B Ratio15.7
Op. Cash Flow$7.8B
Free Cash Flow$1.1B
Industry P/E37.2
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI79.7
Support$210.88
Resistance$292.64
MA 20$250.71
MA 50$218.61
MA 200$194.02
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.38
Valuation
Fair Value$23.65
Target Price$279.06
Upside/Downside-3.59%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.02%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.09
Volatility58.66%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.