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TXN:NASDAQTexas Instruments Incorporated Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-06 - not real-time

$289.44

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Texas Instruments is riding a strong bullish technical backdrop, with price comfortably above its short‑term and medium‑term moving averages and a bullish MACD histogram confirming upward momentum. The RSI is perched in the extreme upper zone, signaling that the stock may be overbought in the very near term, while the market sentiment index is in the "Extreme Greed" range, reflecting heightened investor optimism. Fundamentally, the company posted robust revenue growth and margin expansion, beating consensus estimates and raising guidance well ahead of expectations. However, valuation metrics are stretched; the price‑to‑earnings multiple sits well above the industry average and the discounted cash‑flow model suggests a modest downside relative to the current price. Dividend sustainability is a concern given the very high payout ratio despite solid cash flow generation. The blend of strong earnings momentum, elevated valuation, and heightened volatility creates a nuanced picture that warrants careful positioning across time horizons.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Technical overbought condition (RSI) and strong bullish momentum
  • Valuation premium relative to peers
  • Elevated short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained earnings growth and margin expansion
  • Guidance above consensus supporting revenue trajectory
  • Robust cash generation offsetting dividend payout concerns

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Market leadership in analog and embedded segments
  • Exposure to diversified end‑markets reducing concentration risk
  • Potential valuation correction as price aligns with DCF fair value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth18.60%
Profit Margin29.11%
P/E Ratio49.6
ROE32.35%
ROA12.16%
Debt/Equity83.74
P/B Ratio15.7
Op. Cash Flow$7.8B
Free Cash Flow$1.1B
Industry P/E37.2

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI79.7
Support$210.88
Resistance$292.64
MA 20$250.71
MA 50$218.61
MA 200$194.02
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.38

Valuation

Fair Value$23.65
Target Price$279.06
Upside/Downside-3.59%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.02%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.09
Volatility58.66%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.