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TXMD:NASDAQTherapeuticsMD, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-06 - not real-time

$2.03

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) is trading at $2.03, just above the identified support level of $1.92, while the 20‑day SMA (2.09) sits slightly above the 50‑day SMA (2.15), suggesting a neutral short‑term trend. The RSI of 44 points to neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but the MACD histogram remains negative, indicating lingering bearish momentum. Volatility is elevated at 56% over the past 30 days and the beta of 0.47 points to modest market sensitivity, yet the stock’s market cap of roughly $23 M and decreasing volume raise liquidity concerns. From a valuation perspective, the DCF‑derived fair value of $1.07 is well below the current price, flagging the stock as overvalued, and the forward PE of 5.8 is far beneath the industry average of 26.8, reflecting a price‑to‑earnings disconnect. Fundamental metrics are weak: operating margins are deeply negative, cash flow is modest, and the company carries a high debt‑to‑equity ratio of 22.7. Recent news offers no clear catalyst, merely noting mixed relative performance without material developments. Overall, the blend of technical neutrality, overvaluation, high volatility, and fragile fundamentals suggests caution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering just above support with limited upside
  • Bearish MACD and decreasing volume signal weak short‑term momentum
  • Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Negative operating margins and modest free cash flow
  • Forward PE still low but no clear earnings recovery path
  • High volatility and liquidity constraints may impede price appreciation

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Persistent negative profitability and high debt load
  • Valuation gap widens if earnings do not improve
  • Limited growth catalysts and elevated sector regulatory uncertainty

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth33.90%
Profit Margin-18.83%
P/E Ratio5.8
ROE-2.41%
ROA-3.87%
Debt/Equity22.69
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash Flow$2.4M
Free Cash Flow$303.6K
Industry P/E26.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI44.0
Support$1.92
Resistance$2.25
MA 20$2.09
MA 50$2.15
MA 200$1.69
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.38

Valuation

Fair Value$1.07
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue

Risk Assessment

Beta0.47
Volatility56.10%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.