TWFG:NASDAQTWFG, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-01 - not real-time
$28.83
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
At $28.83, TWFG, Inc. shows a bullish moving-average alignment, with shorter averages sitting above longer ones. The last 30 days have gained 5.3%. With RSI at 54.3 the momentum picture is neutral, alongside a bullish MACD signal. Watch $25.80 as support and $31.30 as the nearer resistance level.
On valuation the read is overvalued — earnings multiple of 48.0 versus a 16.9 sector average, above the peer group. Sell-side targets cluster 7.5% above the current quote. Revenue is growing at 45.1% on a 3.0% profit margin.
Risk scores 7 out of 10, which is elevated for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 46.9%, a beta of -0.48 and a maximum drawdown of 41.7%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is buy while the long-term read is hold, conviction 1 out of 10.
On valuation the read is overvalued — earnings multiple of 48.0 versus a 16.9 sector average, above the peer group. Sell-side targets cluster 7.5% above the current quote. Revenue is growing at 45.1% on a 3.0% profit margin.
Risk scores 7 out of 10, which is elevated for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 46.9%, a beta of -0.48 and a maximum drawdown of 41.7%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 93 on the fear-greed composite.
Timeframes disagree: the short-term read is buy while the long-term read is hold, conviction 1 out of 10.
Top Market Events
– Total Revenues increased 45.1% for the quarter over the prior year period to $87.5 million –– Organic Revenue...- Total Revenues increased 45.1% for the quarter over the prior year period to $87.5 million -TWFG Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 23.50
- MACD momentum is positive
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- P/E of 48.0 versus sector average of 16.9
- Trading above the 200-day average of 23.50
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 1/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 48.0 versus sector average of 16.9
- Analyst targets imply +7.5% versus the current price
- Revenue growth of +45.1%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth45.10%
Profit Margin2.98%
P/E Ratio48.0
ROE19.32%
ROA9.60%
Debt/Equity2.95
P/B Ratio8.0
Op. Cash Flow$60.8M
Free Cash Flow$-32682624
Industry P/E16.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI54.3
Support$25.80
Resistance$31.30
MA 20$28.32
MA 50$26.61
MA 200$23.50
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.95
Valuation
Fair Value$119.73
Target Price$31.00
Upside/Downside7.53%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.48
Volatility46.89%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.