TWE:ASXTreasury Wine Estates Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-09 - not real-time
A$4.63
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
TWE is trading at AUD 4.63, comfortably above its 20‑day (4.36) and 50‑day (4.21) SMAs but still below the 200‑day SMA (5.36), suggesting a neutral to slightly bearish long‑term bias. The MACD histogram is positive (0.025) and the RSI sits at 60.8, indicating modest upside momentum, while volume is on an increasing trend.
Fundamentally the company posted a 16.6% revenue decline and a deep operating loss (‑55% margin) with a trailing EPS of –0.54, yet it offers an 8.8% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 72% on a price‑to‑book of 0.97. The DCF fair‑value estimate of ~AUD 2.02 flags the current price as overvalued, leaving roughly 24% upside to the consensus median target of AUD 5.25.
Recent headlines note a “tough year” but also highlight renewed broker confidence and buying interest from high‑net‑worth investors, underscoring execution risk around the ongoing restructuring. Volatility is high (≈46% 30‑day) but beta is low (≈0.27), limiting systematic market risk.
Fundamentally the company posted a 16.6% revenue decline and a deep operating loss (‑55% margin) with a trailing EPS of –0.54, yet it offers an 8.8% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 72% on a price‑to‑book of 0.97. The DCF fair‑value estimate of ~AUD 2.02 flags the current price as overvalued, leaving roughly 24% upside to the consensus median target of AUD 5.25.
Recent headlines note a “tough year” but also highlight renewed broker confidence and buying interest from high‑net‑worth investors, underscoring execution risk around the ongoing restructuring. Volatility is high (≈46% 30‑day) but beta is low (≈0.27), limiting systematic market risk.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Positive MACD histogram and RSI above 50 suggest short‑term momentum
- Price above short‑term SMAs provides a technical cushion
- Ongoing restructuring creates near‑term earnings uncertainty
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Potential upside to consensus target price (~13% to AUD 5.25)
- Attractive dividend yield if cash flow stabilises
- Improving broker sentiment and modest volume inflow
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Fundamental weaknesses: negative margins, high debt and negative free cash flow
- Low beta limits market‑wide risk but company‑specific execution risk remains
- Long‑term valuation still appears overvalued relative to DCF fair value
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-16.60%
Profit Margin-15.88%
P/E Ratio13.7
ROE-9.91%
ROA-2.91%
Debt/Equity53.69
P/B Ratio1.0
Op. Cash FlowA$382.3M
Free Cash FlowA$-59775000
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI60.8
SupportA$4.03
ResistanceA$4.91
MA 20A$4.36
MA 50A$4.21
MA 200A$5.36
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.64
Valuation
Fair ValueA$2.02
Target PriceA$5.73
Upside/Downside23.97%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield8.81%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.27
Volatility46.14%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.