TVRD:NASDAQTvardi Therapeutics, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-06 - not real-time
$3.66
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Tvardi Therapeutics trades around $3.66, sitting just above its 20‑day (3.22) and 50‑day (3.43) SMAs, while the MACD histogram is positive (≈0.08) and the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, signaling short‑term bullish momentum. The RSI at 60 indicates the stock is not yet overbought, but the 200‑day SMA sits near $11.90, underscoring a long‑term bearish backdrop.
Fundamentally, the company reports zero revenue, a trailing EPS of –3.26, and sizable operating losses with negative cash flow, resulting in a max drawdown exceeding 93%. Recent material news – Barclays cutting the rating to Underweight over funding concerns and a 30% plunge after a weak IPF trial – adds significant downside pressure. Volume is decreasing and 30‑day volatility is extreme (≈76%), highlighting liquidity risk.
Analyst median price target of $8 suggests upside of over 120%, yet the lack of commercial revenue, high sector and regulatory risk, and ongoing funding challenges mean the stock is fundamentally undervalued but extremely speculative.
Fundamentally, the company reports zero revenue, a trailing EPS of –3.26, and sizable operating losses with negative cash flow, resulting in a max drawdown exceeding 93%. Recent material news – Barclays cutting the rating to Underweight over funding concerns and a 30% plunge after a weak IPF trial – adds significant downside pressure. Volume is decreasing and 30‑day volatility is extreme (≈76%), highlighting liquidity risk.
Analyst median price target of $8 suggests upside of over 120%, yet the lack of commercial revenue, high sector and regulatory risk, and ongoing funding challenges mean the stock is fundamentally undervalued but extremely speculative.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- 30% price plunge after disappointing IPF trial results
- negative earnings, cash flow and high drawdown
- price near resistance with decreasing volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- analyst median price target indicating substantial upside
- ongoing Phase 1b/2 trials could de‑risk the pipeline
- persistent volatility and funding concerns
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- potential breakthrough if STAT3 inhibitors succeed
- large unmet need in IPF and hepatocellular carcinoma
- valuation gap to target price provides upside if milestones are met
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
P/E Ratio-1.5
ROE-237.81%
ROA-49.70%
Debt/Equity0.96
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash Flow$-23499000
Free Cash Flow$-15216500
Industry P/E26.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI60.5
Support$2.83
Resistance$3.79
MA 20$3.22
MA 50$3.43
MA 200$11.90
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.38
Valuation
Target Price$8.17
Upside/Downside123.13%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta0.42
Volatility76.01%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.